Augustine,你要明白我不是要你学习我的方法，也不是要你变得像我一样的思考模式和进行同样的投资策略。
为什么呢？
原因在于，金融市场里有各式各样的玩家，每个参与者的立场和思考角度都不一样。

举个例子，
小资金的散户，需要绝对的回酬，风不风险，不是他们的考量范围，反正烂命一条，输完就重新来多一次。

大资金的散户，开始考虑在追求绝对回酬的同时，适度地降低风险，因为损失10%身家就可能是不见了一辆车或是孩子的一年学费，会很痛。

基金经理，只要它的基金组合的年度回酬率高过大盘表现，可以向公司交代就可以了，薪水奖金不受影响即可。稳定和长期，是他们的选股标准，可以不涨，但绝对不可以输给别的基金和大盘。

保险公司，购买的投资标的是对标他们的保单年限，进行风险对冲的同时才来追求回酬。举例:卖出30年的人寿险保单，那就买30年的债券来对冲。如果是股票，那就是30年平均回酬率大概是当时保费率的蓝筹股，绝对不会是创业板的炒股。

国家队的机构，跟随国家政策，扶持国家战略领域的行业是首要任务。只要回酬率高过每年派发给会员或财政部的金额即可。在个股亏钱不用紧，因为组合里有数百个股票，一个股票亏完

也不过是整体组合里的0.0x %的金额，根本微不足道。
就算epf在蛇吧亏了几千万，在整体的1万亿的资产里，也只是十万分之几的的金额，零头都不到。

到了主权基金的级别，例如新加坡的淡马锡基金。
帮助国家在不同国家的关键行业站稳脚步和卡位，发挥国家影响力，帮助国内的经济发展和稳住国内金融稳定。
这是首要政治任务，项目赚钱不赚钱根本不是他们考量，国家战略目标才是他们的操盘目标。

散户会管基金的立场吗？
国家队会在意散户的投资理念吗？
保险公司会像散户那样买高风险的股票吗？

不同位置的人，不同立场。
何必坚持自己的方式才是对的，为何坚持自己的投资理念是正统的。

对我来说，每个人意见和投资策略，都是可取的。
我会尊重每个人的选择和看法，所以我不会成为别人，同样的也不要别人成为我。

能赚到钱，就是好方法。
但是长期和稳定赚到钱的策略，才是我们不断优化自身思维和策略的方向。

leong，每个人都有自己的方法，但决定方法的是背后的理念还有你说的站在不同的位置和不同的目标，不需要去改变他人，也没这个必要，自己按照自己的理念和目标，吸取别人能融合进自己理念的东西，然后微调自己的方法，就已经很好了。

每个人来论坛都有自己的目的，我的目的就是想要从交流中学点东西。当大家目标不能一致时，还是减少交流比较好，这样能避免冲突。leong，我不是说你。

我一直就听说klsescreener可以block人，但是我一直找不到要怎么做才能block，原来手机版本才能做到，我用的电脑版本做不到。自从专用手机版block人，用电脑版阅读后，我就时常block人了，大家不要敏感，其实没有什么的，纯粹是不认同他们的观点，但又怕我嘴贱，起争执而已。block真是太好用了，以前做了很多无畏没有学习到东西的辩论，太浪费精力了。为了避免冲突，省下我的精力，大家保留一点距离是最好的。我没有恶意，你们不要放心上。

路人，关于你提出的两个问题。

1.为何确定frontkn母股会冲破RM4.00的行使价，也是投资者的心理关口。
～我有空再讲解。

2.保险股的课题。
我对保险股不熟。不懂盈利模式和行业趋势，没办法讨论。
但我可以推荐你去takaful，找一个楼贴。
有一个股友～James U相当熟悉这领域。
你自己去爬帖吧

路人，关于你的问题
为什么我会认为frontkn一定会冲破RM4.00。
这信心是经验还是逻辑?

我的回答是:
1.逻辑和概率
逻辑:
当时2024年5月是牛市，科技股是资金追逐的对象。
另外，当时的母股的价钱是RM3.88, 距离转换价相差12仙，也就是4%左右。
这4%对大型科技股，是易如反掌。
当时，台积电的财报是在4月18日公布，yoy是增长8.9%，qoq是减少5.5%，当时的财报展望是偏乐观，主要是特别看好ai需求。

大顾客财报好，马股是牛市，本身的业绩稳稳吃米饭。
我找不到理由说它上不上去。

第二个问题:
值博率:
盈亏比1比4.5。
输的概率小，赢的话又有大回报。
为什么不买?

至于有多少的概率会升?
我无法量化，但肯定涨的几率大于跌。

值不值得“赌”?
我不喜欢用这个字眼，因为那代表我们有侥幸心理。
这要看盈亏比。
如果有个生意是赚就赚8%，亏就亏36%，
你要投资吗？

Fisher,我喜欢你对我的数学题的反驳

每一个新的投资，都是一个未知数。
哪有每次都有26%赚幅的固定盈利。那只是骗骗自己和小白就可以啦。
你们这些老手，马上找到思维盲点。
赞

Tteffub
你对基本面投资的弱点，掌握的很好。

1.用“过去”，去预判“未来”。
2.股市是“理性”和“非理性”的混合体。

马拉，
你对于资金配置，有很深的理解。

小资金，
一定体量的资金，
再到大资金，

都需要用不同的方式去管理。

我有注意到，我一直都在注意，每天都在关注它的股价，让亏损不断加深我的教训，这样才会学到东西（真心话，不是反话），我反而不会像很多人说，接受不了或者伤心而不去看股价，我会尽量看股价加深教训，训练自己的心理素质。投资有赚有亏，连年下来能够做到赚多过亏已经很好了，不需要强求，可能这也是我比较容易看得开的原因。

我的看法其实没有错，frontken现在股价回来了证明了这点。错就错在我买warrant，warrant有寿命。如果买母股可以长抱到天长地久，好公司股价一定会回来，容错率高反脆弱性高。买warrant有一定寿命，在公司基本面之上还要叠加一层进出时机的思考，因为有寿命，运气成分就变得很高。我是要教训自己不要依靠自己掌握不住的运气致富。要致富就要靠一些自己能掌握的东西致富。

wong，胜败乃兵家常事，没有记错的话，我是在开始买股第二年买入frontken warrant的，虽然有算过风险，但是没有真实经历过还是差一点，我没你们想的那样伤心，我算过风险的，当时不是all in frontken warrant，而是同时买了frontken warrant，harta，mpi，心想有一个大涨已经足够cover了，事后看回去也的确如此，拉长补短，还能承受。大家共勉。

很久沒留意評論了，剛讀到Leong兄、Augustine兄等等對於投資的精彩討論，所以也來說一說我的看法。我會先退一步，我認為投資的重點不在選股選市或選時機。最重要的基礎就是良好的個人理財觀念與習慣，例如控制開支，目標明確，有足夠應急錢等等。接下來才是投資。對大多數人（巴菲特例外），分散投資是最重要的 - 分散asset class、分散市場、分散時間。而且除非很有時間興趣及知識，投資不一定要選個股。我認為EPF就很不錯，雖然我沒有數據，我覺得EPF的risk adjusted return 很高。除了EPF，ETF（主要是海外市場）及某些基金也很好的投資工具，但應該分段進，而且要有心理預期回報不會跑贏大市，我們要的是通過這些工具達到長期的複利效應。

10倍股的市值不能太大（因為業務大了成長空間受限）、派息率不能太高（以保留盈利繼續投入高ROE項目），所以股價波動可以很大。如果沒有深入研究就可能在跌市時進退失據，被震倉出局。再說也沒有必要糾結於10倍股，畢竟買入時難於看清長遠未來的發展，有的好公司成長了幾年便遇到瓶頸。所以我偏向於業績能見度高、業務成熟、派息率高的公司，用複利的方式，即使慢了點也可以更放心地累積資本。與其發掘十倍股，更應該注重於整個投資組合的長期回報及風險。當然每個人做法不同，難以比較，最重要是理解自己的長短處，找出適合自己的方式。

@James U, I bet on a 174-times return (not just 10-20) for my 0.5¢ Focus mothers, haha:) When the cash-cow Focus mothers were hovering at 60-70¢ four years ago, I told the readers to wait for the fierce and greedy "sharks" or manipulators to smash them all down to 0.5¢ (safest)! Yet, they fail to purchase any Focus share, but I had four years to study for just one counter:)

The Edge published a special report in 2020 "Hidden Hands behind Penny Stock Surge". Focus Dynamics is just one corner of the huge spider web. I don't disagree that it could be fun and exciting to allocate a small portion of capital for speculation, but one still needs to weigh the odds of winning. The odds of striking lottery is better than 0.5 sen Focus returning 174 times to regain its all time high. Even if the share price were to recover, there could be rights issue, PP and others along the way. There are many casinos in the world. Why walk into one that is rigged against you?

@James U, I understand your concern as I used the same article to warn my readers, "four years ago," not to buy any share until 0.5¢ -- no way down:) In 2020, I bet on the 100-year opportunities on GENM (RM2) and (RM3), but the returns were nowhere near 100%! Focus caught my eye due to its very high gross margins!

Google AI:
"Below are the approximate gross margins for Focus Dynamics Group Berhad (FOCUS.KL) for recent fiscal years:
FY2025 (TTM): 57.49%
FY2024: 59.24%
FY2023: 58.81%
FY2022: 50.51%
FY2021: 50.61%
FY2020: 52.19% 
The gross margin for the trailing twelve months (TTM) as of a recent report is 57.49%. The average over the past five complete fiscal years (FY2020-FY2024) is calculated from the annual report data."

Google AI:
"The average gross margin for YTL Power International Bhd (YTL Power) over the past five fiscal years (ending June 30, 2020 to 2024) was approximately 19.9%."

But, you need not worry as you will not buy any Focus share, no matter how cheap:) I responded to your comment because any blue chip will not give you a 10-to-20-times return!

I understand your strategy. But first let's talk about the gross margin analysis by Google AI. Gross margin has no meaning as the net margin has been negative for most of the quarters. In fact even if the company records accounting profits it is still meaningless since it won't return cash to shareholders. According to KLSE screener info, this company has never paid a single cent of dividend in its existence! So the comparison with YTL Power, which returns cash to shareholders despite lower gross margin, is like apple to orange (a rotten one)

I don't dispute that the strategy of buying at the lowest bid (0.5 sen in Bursa) and sell at the next higher bid (1 sen) looks appealing, in theory. Such strategy can be applied to all penny stocks as long as there is sufficient liquidity and the stock is not at immediate risk of suspension, delisting or other surprises. So whether it's Focus Dynamic or other penny stocks, as long as the conditions fulfil, it still works, theoretically.

However, liquidity, trading cost, opportunity cost (the time to complete buy at 0.5 sen and sell at 1 sen) are important consideration. Take Focus for example, over the last 1 year the share price has drifted from 2 sen to 1.5sen, then to 1 sen, and now 0.5sen for the last few months. During this last few months, except a few occasions which you happen to come across, most of the time the daily trading volume just ranged from a few hundred Ringgit to a few thousand Ringgit a day. But I notice there are many bids in the 0.5 sen queue probably employing the same strategy as you.

On 20Nov, there was just one single transaction at 0.5 sen where 35,000 shares were sold to the buyer. The gross transaction amount was 35,000 * RM0.005 = RM175! The buyer had to pay RM1 stamp duty, and possibly a few ringgit of minimum brokerage fee.

After getting the 35,000 shares at 0.5sen, one can queue to sell at 1sen to realise a 100% profit, which is just RM175 before cost. But I'm not sure how long is the wait. Hence the opportunity cost. But the longer the wait, the higher the uncertainty due to factors such as suspension risk, delisting risk etc.

May be it's an OK strategy if applied across many stocks currently trading at 0.5sen. Otherwise the strategy is hard to scale due to liquidity constraint. Nonetheless I don't dispute a 100% profit opportunity (before cost). When I say the odds are better in striking lottery, I refer to buying at 0.5sen and expecting it to return 174X i.e. to ride the stock price back to 80+ sen.

It is not called net margin but profit, which is mingled with the "paper" (or unrealized, accounting term) loss/profit of Focus's stock investments like Gocean. To turn a paper profit, the sharks just need to goreng up Gocean -- hence, net profit. This is why Warren Buffett emphasizes a gross margin ((revenue - direct costs)/revenue x 100%), and not net profit! Buffett said that if a company has consecutive gross margins of more than 40%, it will be a market leader!

Google AI:
"Warren Buffett generally looks for companies with a consistent gross margin of 40% or higher, as this indicates strong pricing power and a durable competitive advantage (moat). The overall gross margin for Berkshire Hathaway Inc. as a conglomerate, however, has fluctuated and is currently lower, around 17-24%."

If Focus was not a cash cow, it could not afford to open the expensive F&B outlets or brands over the past several years, and recently The Arch Galeries (roughly RM220M construction cost), which held the biggest Hennessy Artistry music event last Saturday. It has the largest event hall next to TREC (bars and clubs), and opposite to TRX -- these two areas have no lack of high-valued foreign customers, who can pay for Focus's expensive spirits -- one was priced more than RM12K per bottle!

You are right about the risky penny stocks, but I spent four years to gain enough information and facts that Focus is not like one of them. In fact, I told the readers four years ago that all penny stocks were potentially PN17, except Focus:) Like you said, you need time to study a stock in detail to gain any confidence.

If the gross margin was positive each quarter since at least 2019, it meant at least half of the revenue was the gross profit (aka cash flow), but where did this cash go each quarter? It was hiding under "Other Operating Expenses" for opening new outlets, brands, or The Arch Galeries.

We all know Focus is a "crazy shark" counter. The 87¢ investors have already lost 174 times! If Kenneth Vun is crazy enough, it could even goreng up to 100¢ -- no logic or fundamentals, but based on his moods:) He is back from the HK exile (unscratched from COVID-19) and has become a CEO for two listed companies here! The CEO, Tay Ben Seng, has proved his leadership and vision by making The Arch the next-level, lifestyle (high-class or fashionable) entertainment and F&B hub!

I'm impressed that you could spend 4 years following a company whose share price dropped by more than 99%; waited patiently to buy at the lowest bid of 0.5 sen, yet expecting it to return 174 times. If it's truly a hidden gem, let's say with an intrinsic value of near RM1 (since you've mentioned 174 times return), why not buy it when it's 50 sen, 30 sen, 10 sen, or even 2 sen? Why are you so confident that it would hit 0.5sen? Is it because you know the share is being manipulated? If it has been manipulated in the past, why would you expect that it can return to its previous height? Is it because you expect the syndicate to repeat another round and you can ride along?

If that's the thinking, any story around the company business potential, IMHO, is just a story. The level of gross margin varies depending on industry. 99SMart has a wafer thin gross margin, yet it's hugely profitable. On the other hand, many industries with high gross margin are loss making. In FOCUS case, they suffer operating losses

Yes, part of the operating expenses could be spent on furnishing the brand image, e.g. through advertising & promotions. While it's expensed off in accounting, from valuation stand point we may choose to capitalise as intangible brand assets. However, the intangibles will still need to be amortised over time. Yes, one may argue that the current year advertisement spending should be deducted from operating expenses (because they are for future benefits). However, by the same arguement, the advertisement spending in the last few years have to be brought into the current year. So the net effect is operating expenses are still incurred. There is no free lunch. An operating loss is an operating loss. A company cannot survive on gross profit alone.

Besides one could also question how effective is those promotion and advertising spending to shore up the brand value. If the brand value is so great, why did FOCUS suffer from declining revenue quarter after quarter? The 12k per bottle spirit remains just a price tag, an inventory with carrying cost, if the company cannot sell sufficient number of them to generate higher turnover.

I stop looking further into this company when I found out it has changed its financial year end three years in a row - in 2022, 2023 and 2024! Many companies that got into trouble shared the same pattern. This is certainly a red flag to me.

Don't get me wrong. I don't disagree that some people could still make money out of such situation, regardless of whether the business operation is a hidden gem or not. The syndicate for example make money. However, for ordinary people like me, broadly speaking there are two ways to make money. One way is to share a growing pie, where over time as a company grows and propers, the shareholder oriented management start returning cash to shareholders. In this approach, a shareholder does not need to depend on another person to buy his ticket at a higher price in order to make a profit/ exit.

However, based on FOCUS track record, as long as the old guards are still in control, I doubt they will share any fruit with the minority shareholders, regardless of whether the company propers or not. Remember this is a company that has never declared a single sen of dividend in its long existence. So that leaves only the other way of making money which is hoping for the next person to buy our ticket at a higher price, hopefully in the next round of speculation and mania. This is also called the Greater Fool Theory.

I'm not saying it won't work. Different people earn money in different ways. It's just that I don't like zero sum game. For peace of mind I rather stay with a good company with an honest management. Nonetheless I would like to thank you for explaining and sharing the details. Good luck to your venture.

I would "invest" in a shark counter (treating it like my own company) if my first principle is met -- 0.5¢ and cash cow (aka high margins). The sharks cannot trick you at the safest 0.5¢, and a cash cow makes mother tricks like a rights issue unnecessary! All other "bogus" prices like 87¢ are not safe! In short, think very hard about how you would lose before a profit. Also, the maximum gain starts at the 0.5¢ base. After goreng, the "greedy" sharks need the cheapest shares for the next round.

You have the skills and patience. From the way you described you probably enjoy the game. But I must say this is a game that only very few people can play well. For me sleep quality is more important :) Anyway good luck!

Four years ago, I told my readers a "shark," first-principle counter was not a bad thing; otherwise, how could you get the 0.5¢ shares? There are three reasons for the next round:
1. The sharks are still the biggest shareholders under the proxy accounts;
2. A greedy shark could not resist the quick-profit goreng;
3. Focus-PA holders would give 49.5¢ each conversion if mothers are > PA price + 49.5¢ -- the sharks had about RM90M cash by maintaining the 60-70¢ price range for about a year!

Even if there was no goreng, Focus is still a hidden gem because all consecutive gross profits from the past several years were used (via Other Operating Expenses) to open more expensive F&B brands and The Arch Galeries despite the "bogus" net losses!

Only two (me and one friend) in the whole of Malaysia bought the 0.5¢ PA over the past 1-2 years as we snapped all transactions! On the contrary, hearing so many stories about KLSE blue-chip losses, my first principle is the safest! However, like I emphasized, Focus is an "emergent" (no planning) 100-year opportunity, which was created by the sharks!

My first degree is in finance and accounting from renowned Baruch College in NYC, despite my PhD degree in software engineering pioneering (way before Ukraine war) unpiloted air vehicles (autonomous UAVs or drones) for the US Naval Research Laboratory. Our college had a link to NYSE to study all investment strategies, so yours are not new but classical.

The Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) or AGM-158C, resulted from my pioneering work, is securing the peace in the South China Sea! My coauthor can sleep well and need not worry about his daughters' future as the Chinese warships are no match for the autonomous and stealthy LRASM cruise (terrain-following & radar-avoidance) missiles:)

As for the US markets (especially NASDAQ) full of high-tech startups, the best strategy is to study the future-tech dominance. For example, I predicted the demise of Intel and the rise of TSMC more than 12 years ago! When you held the first iPhone in 2007, it meant the end of computers and x86 architecture.