Looking back at TAKAFUl after Nov'25, nothing changed. Fundamental is still rock solid, the variable income portion - investment profits from its bond and equity holdings should hold up relatively well over the last few months. KLCI took a modest retracement, but fixed income (MGS bonds) should have performed well, as evidenced by MYR's strength despite the flight to safe havens due to the Middle East war.

Its core business profit reporting should be on track for a steady rise as the effect of MFRS17 (which locks up upfront premium profit and normalizes release over the years) unwinds. MHIT gains greater clarity, and a consolidation in the insurance industry should bode well for earning visibility over the mid-term horizon.

Structurally, it is just a safe, boring, predictable mid-cap with good yields (20-30% above risk-free rate like FD, ASM or MGS). The recent tax introduction on REITs should have forced an exodus of foreign funds, but if these foreign funds have a mandate to retain their capital in MYR holdings, after liquidating their cash flow position from REITs, where can they go? Finance and plantation are arguably the beneficiaries. Banking and plantation are rather overextended, insurers should experience some spillover from these excess capital.

真的有点坑

股息前起一轮然后再ex-date 前压低

现在ex-date后开始拉了。。。。。。