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我在0.59-0.605 大量囤货,几个季度过后,慢慢人们就会发现 CLMT/KIP 的基本面没坏掉,坏掉的是人民对税收的唾弃。在现在的价位,还没factor in growth, 8% dividend *0.2-0.3 withholding tax, net effective yield > S-REIT average (which is at around 5%, probably lower in tier 1 REITs like C38U).
Betul. I am convinced that its value is at least RM4 in due time. Not in a straight line, but who cares, you're pocketing 5-6% a year. Dividend payout is growing, strong structural demand shielded from global volatility, inflation, and growth-resistant, a must-have in a portfolio as a defensive position. Mark my words, revisiting this in 27 or 28
Looking back at TAKAFUl after Nov'25, nothing changed. Fundamental is still rock solid, the variable income portion - investment profits from its bond and equity holdings should hold up relatively well over the last few months. KLCI took a modest retracement, but fixed income (MGS bonds) should have performed well, as evidenced by MYR's strength despite the flight to safe havens due to the Middle East war.
Its core business profit reporting should be on track for a steady rise as the effect of MFRS17 (which locks up upfront premium profit and normalizes release over the years) unwinds. MHIT gains greater clarity, and a consolidation in the insurance industry should bode well for earning visibility over the mid-term horizon.
Structurally, it is just a safe, boring, predictable mid-cap with good yields (20-30% above risk-free rate like FD, ASM or MGS). The recent tax introduction on REITs should have forced an exodus of foreign funds, but if these foreign funds have a mandate to retain their capital in MYR holdings, after liquidating their cash flow position from REITs, where can they go? Finance and plantation are arguably the beneficiaries. Banking and plantation are rather overextended, insurers should experience some spillover from these excess capital.
Looking good. Looking forward to the QR, with a continuous strengthening of MYR, everything is still looking bright other than the share price (bot manipulation)
If everything goes well, “by right” Nov quarter should be a relatively better one QoQ. Takaful’s income relies quite a bit on investment and it’s MGS holdings, with recent OPR cut (bond holding value goes up when interest is down), and Klci stronger performance in Q3, Nov QR should be less concerning. But Takaful may very well still continue dingdong by the bot, who cares