预算案正在解锁来临的通膨，就这样。。。行政预算始终被我认为是国家发展的绊脚石没法改变。减轻国债是有看到政府努力着，虽然效果不彰，能闻到算OK了。各大行代表出来歌功颂德，那就有点恶心了。其实看到来就只是平平无奇的报告，看下来的政策吧！最后，大家再努力一点，国家破记录的税收需要保持。备注：牛身上是取不到羊毛的

ermm... not so straightforward, kok boon liu. different fiscal policies that gov can adopt and pretty much depends on the state of the nation. you either go with (1) fiscal expansion - increase spending and cut taxes to reverse economic downturn. we saw this during the pandemic phase. often it ends up with economy recovery, higher budget deficit, higher national debt level and inflation goes up (2) fiscal contraction - reduce spending and increase taxes to slow down economic activities to control inflation and reduce deficit, reduce debt. Our government doing its due diligence to prevent further burden to national debt while being conscious about the need to move the country forward - prosperous nation, well being of the people. So, opt for the middle path (3) fiscal consolidation - control spending, some form of tax increase to reduce deficit and manage the debt better. That's what you are seeing from this budget - reduce subsidies, tax increases in certain areas, no wow factor on massive spending or no curse factor on tax increase :), increase disposable income for lower income groups, higher minimum wage. Domestic tourism and retailers will benefit from this.

money supply or the interest rates are part of the monetary policy, Nick; central banks if you will. Basically, government uses fiscal policy and monetary policy to manage the economy. One might think of control spending means less money for growth. Not really as lower interest rates can boost growth and high capex companies / tech companies favors low interest rates :)

alright, kok. the translation to english mentioned something about takes away capital from the market. Not sure if thats the meaning. I didnt notice anything on capital inflow and capital outflow related policies from the budget presented. Nevertheless, these are the topics for economists/gov.

Thanks, kok. I am in the opinion that Kamala Harris will win based on the market behavior. The rationale behind my thinking is that policies will change when different party is in power and hence market will be spooked. Looking at the financial market behavior, it's not showing signs that Trump/new administration will win. Just my opinions, could be wrong. Hope it helps.

noted, tim foo. I will wait until next year for the results of RWNYC full casino license bid. Additional bonus if Genting/GenM sell off the Bahamas segment. My only expectation for GenM in its quarterly report is to stay above 700M ebitda quarterly. No taxes/levies hit for Genting/GenM from the budget which is favourable factor. Forex is beyond its control but its favourable for GenM now. Interest rates is down which is also favourable for GenM. Management has been singing the tune of reducing interest expense which leads to deleveraging which is a big positive for GenM in the long run. Exiting Bahamas segment bodes well for its ebitda and helps with deleveraging. For me, i am looking at the following - min 700M ebitda quarterly, deleveraging over time, RWNYC full casino license. I will exit my position if the following factors are no longer meeting my expectation by next year end :)

Interesting commentaries from Moody's - On the regulatory complaint pertaining to the group’s operations at Resorts World Las Vegas LLC and a complaint by the minority shareholder of Resort World Bimini in the Bahamas, Moody’s does not expect these to result in significant financial damages and disruptions to operations.

As Is - there is no disposition from Nevada Gaming Commission yet for RWLVS complaints stemming from Sibella court case since Apr'24 while federal court has sentenced Sibella to one year of probation and a fine of $9,500 for violating a federal law requiring casinos to know the source of their customer’s funds and file a suspicious activity report. Perhaps NGC is also waiting for Genting to respond back to the complaint and to decide thereafter. https://gaming.nv.gov/gaming/complaints/stipulations/

yes, it is 鄭崇聖. Interest rate cut has been the topic since early this year. Powell mentioned benchmark rate moving towards neutral rate :) Which means we will continue to see gradual cut going into 2025. And US Fed believes the US economy is still strong. When the economic situation changes for good or for bad, a new neutral interest rate will be calculated. And then, Fed will then make the adjustment accordingly moving towards the new neutral rate. So, if US economic indicators showing that its slowing down, a new neutral interest rate will be lower which will then lead to bigger rate cuts to move towards neutral rate. Just my opinions, could be wrong. Hope it helps.

its approx 150M for every 4.5% weakening of USD, Vin. Q2'24 USDMYR rate is approx 4.7 and Q3'24 end of Sep rate is approx 4.1; equivalent to ~12.5% weakening. Lets just take the average will do which is ~4.4 exchange rate. That will give us approx 8% weakening of USD which should translate to 200M++. Just a rough estimate and could be wrong.

Lets just wait for the results, Vin. After all, I do not think funds/insti will make a move if Q3 earnings is below 250M net profit. In fact, GenM has to produce 250M for Q3 and Q4 respectively in my personal opinion to demand a valuation of min 3.00 :) Funds/insti are the driver for such big cap stocks.

There is opportunity for Genting to hit the headlines within these 3 months based on the 150 days approval process from UK MHRA, Vin. The baseline assumption is no progress after so many years :) So, marketing authorization approval is big positive surprise. 20th +/- 2 days in Nov and Dec. The last date will be on the 23rd of Jan'25 based on the assumption that UK MHRA accepted the data/docs submitted for marketing authorization in Jul'24.

really? Didn't know I have such jinx power :) Lol, no pun intended. I am just a small fish in genm/genting. It should be directed to the funds/insti that collectively increased their net short positions to above 60M while on the other hands, the IBs are issuing overweight/buy calls with different TPs.

but cheng, I hard to think us fed will continue to cut interest rate when 2025 due to estimated inflation rate will increase soon ( so many hot money pump back to America,again)...for my opinion,Us Fed will be cut twice times more,when interest rates come to 4%,it will be stop or add rates soon

That's how the US Fed works, 鄭崇聖; benchmark interest rates towards neutral rates. As far as I am aware, the current neutral rates baseline is at ~3%. Hence, we can expect "gradual" interest rate cut instead of aggressive cut towards 3% due to the current state of the economy.

Tq for the compliments, Whack9e. Just sharing my opinions and insights based on the facts available :) Will continue to share as and when information is made available. As Is, Genting America is expected to file the response to RAV Bahamas by 22nd Nov. And GAI's panel of lawyers is led by Philip Stein. Names of 4 more lawyers submitted to the court making a total of 5 lawyers :)

Lets look forward to the Q3 earnings report and followed by market cap position of GenM at the close of trading on 25th Nov :) For now, funds/insti have increased their net short positions in anticipation of index funds rebalancing assuming GenM is removed from FTSE KLCI constituents.

I am still holding it, tim foo :) Price below 2.24 is the start of running loss for me :) I will wait for Q3 results to be released first. Will add if Q3 net profit is at least 250M. Else, will just wait instead of going against the current momentum :)

following are my opinions on PA based on quick read on its latest annual report, tim foo. Just my opinions, could be wrong. Hope it helps. Please consult the professionals if you have to. I did not perform any valuation as it will take a longer time to do so. (1) I did not see any financial risks from the balance sheet as cash >> total liabilities and looks to me a conservative style of mgmt. Decent payout in terms of dividend comparing to how much it is making. (2) pg16 calls out the business risks and that tells me it is a highly cyclical industry. There are 2 elements that you can monitor easily - usdmyr and aluminium price. As for the demand, you have to keep an eye on its major customer. Looking at the recent trends, it looks to me that USDMYR is the one driving the recent price actions. Every 10% weakening of USDMYR rate is equivalent ~RM9M decrease of PAT. And, usdmyr is relatively active this year compared to aluminium price and PA price trend correlates to usdmyr trend. While usdmyr has strengthened a bit over the last two months, its still down by ~6.5% from the peak in Apr'24. Its safe to assume that PAT for FY25 is trending to be lower by ~5.8M compared to FY24. Aluminium price is relatively stable at $2500+/-$200 per metric ton. (3) major geo is US and one major customer contributing to ~85% of its total revenue; should be First Solar. This is a risk that you need to price in into your price. No financial risk but high dependency on single source of revenue. You need good margins of safety. Additionally, Donald Trump is not a fan of solar energy given the dominance of China's solar panels but you may see First Solar shifting its focus to made in US panels. You can keep an eye on First Solar earnings call to give you a grasp of what's going on that could potentially affect PA from demand perspective. For now, it looks like First Solar has revised down its net sales guidance. https://investorshangout.com/first-solars-q3-2024-earnings-call-highlights-and-insights-107101-/

net profit in FY24 is 45.7M and FY25 is trending lower due to weaker USD/MYR rate and trending to ~40M ctd assuming everything else equals. Instead of performing a full valuation exercise, you can use the PE method to estimate price. A PE10, 40M net profit will give it a price of 0.265 which is pretty close to current market price. Its a bit lengthy but hope it helps to add value to your own analysis, tim foo.

relief plan will be known by the 25th of Nov, Nick :) For now, funds/insti have pre-positioned themselves by increasing their net short positions. Current trend seems to be driven by the ftse klci constituent index fund rebalancing instead of financial performance:) Small fish like us can only wait for panic sell opportunity. cooler heads prevail.

low interest rates will be good for hotels and resorts - capex if you will, Nick. We wont be seeing new licenses being issued every month and hence, not expecting capex for new casinos in general for the industry. However, you may see IR operators capex spending on hotels retrofitting/upgrades, theme park/entertainment capex and probably some on the slots machines/tables - replace old slots/table games.