钢铁原料在低价，ASP drop, revenue drop
Galvanized steel & HRC在低价加工后在便宜卖出去，profit margin up
4个重点
1. 钢矿石和焦煤 造钢原料都在低价
2. Trump搞的弱美元，天天喊US FED降息，降息后美元越弱，CSC是完全从CSC台湾进口HRC, 马币走强自然input cost reduce
3. Import 钢铁在低价位进口进来inventory 就自然不会有inventory write down亏损
4. 5th May Misif 钢铁公会已经发出公告MITI anti dumping duty for CRC flat roller product review on final stage...

最近CSC股价慢慢爬升，你觉得是大户庄家头脑发烧抢反弹这么简单吗？懂的都懂的，他们早已经算出了这一个quarter大概赚多少，看准利多在股价低迷时拉升了

FYE. 2024 profit 34.2 mil *78%
26.676mil /380mil= 0.07
payout ratio 78%

如果按照接下来每个quarter 保持赚11mil
2025 total profit 45.6mil if payout ratio 75%
34.2mil / 380mil = 0.09 cent
CSCSTEL 很多年派息在75％之间
还是蛮不错现金牛，肯定好过FD

3. 中国钢铁总生产量1-5月跌. Steel production in China decreased by 6.9% year-on-year in May 2025, reaching 86.55 million tons. 

Overall Output: Production in 2026 is expected to be more than 10% below the 2020 peak, with a potential drop below 1 billion tonnes in 2025.

4. 铁矿石， 焦煤 源料下跌

Profit margin 48-50mil, 48mil*0.85%=40.8mil
Total share 380mil
40.8/380 =0.107cent

If lock in share price based on RM1.08
107/1080*100=9.9% dividend yield

我趋向相信股票是等的，不是去追高买入
1. 中国产能过剩，国家政策开始减产
2. 利空出尽, 股价趋向稳定没有恐慌抛售
2. CRC, galvanized steel 倾销关税开始3. 铁矿石源料跌
4. 稳定股息7-8％
5. Inventory + receivable + cash - payable 总洁现金流 770mil 差不多是一股RM2现金 （安全边际）
6. 反倾销关税应该要等6个月才会看到成绩，QR report 高涨所谓炒家analyst 才来讲东讲西，吸引散户追高
7. 现在股票能不输钱的，就已经表现好过很多股了
8. 科技股最近飙升一推咕鲁唱好，突然间放坏消息，庄家总能割散户韭菜

Q1 profit 12.6 Q2 profit 17mil half year profit 29.6mil
If based on csc dividend payout 85%
25.16 /380 =6.62 cent
If estimate Q3 and Q4 profit each QR profit 12mil
Total net profit is 53.6mil
So next year dividend payout can go up to 119cent per share