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GenM's stake in Empire Resort is a love and hate story :) There is nothing much minority shareholders can do about it. I personally dislike it; particularly the move from Kien Huat Realty to GenM. As is, GenM's shareholding in Empire Resort is approaching 90% and no chance to increase further. Any attempt to transfer the remaining stakes from Kien Huat Realty to GenM will definitely raise eyebrow :) The bigger question is will GenM be successful in winning the bid for RWNYC given its existing contributions in US via RWNYC and Empire Resorts (Catskills and Hudson Valley). If it fails to win the bid, time to say goodbye to GenM.
unlikely, Tim Foo :) any further drop should be welcomed given the min 15 cents yearly dividend and tailwinds outweigh headwinds in the next 12 months.
manage it well until the next market panic opportunity as Q2'24 performance will be the one that reflects the headwinds - full quarter performance with 2 facilities shutdown for renovations impact on its revenue, 2% sst impact on its margins and higher shareholdings for Empire impact on its higher share of profit/losses. Q1'24 revenue for NYC and Hudson Valley looks really good while Catskills remained flattish; operational costs will be the deciding factors here again.
Cheng. Yes. Because need to take out capital first and not sure can materialize it since opposition is strong. Government can be changed anytime. Good luck
not so much on opposition or politics, Lionel. I personally don't think it's a good business model. If it is a GO project, it's cannibalisation of Resort World Sentosa's revenue and Genting Highlands revenue. Genting group stand to lose more than gains in my personal opinion, could be wrong :)
True, Eddy. I believe Genting Singapore will bid for it when the time comes :) Timing wise is just nice for Genting Singapore as RWS 2.0 will probably be completed in 5 years time and just in time to start Thailand's project if it is successful in the bidding; assuming all acts/regulations are in place by then.
Post Q2'24 will be volatile depending on the outcome, Tok Tiong. Can be upside or downside volatility:) Well, if Genting decided to participate in the Forest City, it will be immediately volatile towards the downside.
agreed with Vin, Michael. (1) Track records over the last two fiscal years showing GenM's intention of maintaining a minimum 15 cents yearly payout; 6 cents post Q2 and 9 cents post Q4. (2) Despite the headwinds in Q2'24, it is unlikely that the performance will be lower compared to Q2'22 and Q2'23.
I thought this year gaming stock started to move on... But seem like foreigner still focus on YTL, construction, property stock first..
Mistake... >. <
S&P continues to believe that Genting Bhd will provide strong long-term support to its group companies, Genting Malaysia, Resorts World Las Vegas, and Genting New York, even under stressed conditions. This is mainly due to their strategic importance to the group's branding (Resorts World and Genting) and operations. S&P sees Genting Malaysia as a core subsidiary of Genting Bhd because it is integral to the group's business and strategy. Resorts World Las Vegas and Genting New York are seen as highly strategic subsidiaries, owing to their strategic importance to the group's expansion strategy in the U.S. While, Genting New York's and Resorts World Las Vegas's less significant ebitda contributions to the group limit their group status when compared with Genting Malaysia. S&P expects Genting New York and Resorts World Las Vegas will receive support under almost all foreseeable circumstances, because any financial distress in these companies will have significant implications for Genting group's reputation and global standing with gaming regulators.
Sell if the reasons that led you to invest in GenM 4 years ago are no longer there :) After all, you have no controls over the headwinds/tailwinds. Have faith in your own plans. Personally for me, I bought the recovery and eyeing for RWNYC full casino license, Miami land sales and impairment reversal from the Mashpee Wampanoag integrated resort; barring any bizarre/sketchy business decisions. If these events are no longer possible, I will exit too.
interesting discussions :) The next FTSE KLCI constituents review will happen in June'24 and Q1'24 results will be released by the end of May'24. Will the funds/institutions holding GenM push it to above 2.75 before the review?
The question is more important to the BODs and funds/institutions rather than retail investor like us, Vin :) Being removed from the list means other companies are growing in "market cap" and pushing it down to lower ranks in the top30 pie. Sliced the market cap down further and you will reach the element of positive price momentum apart from appreciation in market value driven by sustained earnings, dividend payout and etc. For the case of GenM, it is missing positive price momentum :) There should be some volatility in the event it is being removed from the KLCI constituents due to funds/institutions rebalancing actions.
You are welcome, Vin. Not expecting much surprises from Q1'24. Q2'24 is the one to watch and hopefully the impact from the temporary closure of two gaming facilities for renovation will be minimal. All is well as long as the quarterly ebitda remains at min 700M in FY2024
Miami land deal and backing from Genting group, Vin. Its an existing facility and i do not think much capital needed to add the table games. In my personal opinion - the land sales will have to go on even without the NY gaming license.
Unlikely to turn red, Vin :) numbers from RWNYC, Hudson Valley and Catskills from Q1'24 are better than Q4'23 based on the report from the gaming commission. I didn't recall any events in Q1'24 that could negatively affect the traffic footfall/hotel's revpar/ticket sales at Genting Highlands. It will probably take another 6 to 12 months to confirm the NY gaming license.
Agreed, Frank Tan and Tim Foo :) Profitable QR is expected and the challenge for GenM is to produce results that will earn positive rerating from analysts. We can only manage our own positions well until Q2'24 as we do not have visibility of the impact from the temporary closure of the gaming facilities plus margins erosion from 2% sst; full quarter performance. Min 700M ebitda per quarter translates to 2.8bil ebitda and that will be higher than FY2023 at ~2.6bil.
I'm sure you've got a crystal ball, Cheng!!! In 2012, the government did a 12% raise and GLCs followed suit with raise as high as 50% for their underperforming staffs to kick off the hyperinflation. As they're doing it again with a whopping 13%, hedging the hyperinflationary spiral with blue chips is imperative now
Good callout on the potential spiral effect, Ricardo. Will keep an eye on it and thanks for sharing :) Trying to add while keeping my avg low enough in such that dy is still >5% with 15 cents payout.
