Jensen Lam's comment on D&O. All Comments
Jensen Lam
4 Like · Reply
heard their QR report will have single digit profit and low double digit revenue growth...expect to see KWAP slowly buying more
Report
5 years · edited · translate ·
Ken Tang
52 weeks low now....
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LAI QIAN
Mean LED biz is good now...
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Henry Chan
alamak, anyone collecting?
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cheng
lol. price actions today not too bad with presence of big player. QR is approx. 2 weeks from now.
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cheng
sounds good. AGM coincides with estimated QR release date :)
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Alex Loong
those who bought in today at 61, your are actually at same cost with the preference share which hold by big boss. safe or not, not sure, at least a guide for you, cheers !!
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cheng
that's nice sharing, Alex. nice group of people here sharing and learning together. if I may summarize it: risk management + trade management. let's wait patiently, sharing, learning and see whether all the shareholders here can score a home run!!!
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Alex Loong
Goh, are you going to AGM? If yes, mind to share some info afterward, thanks in advance !
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cheng
hi Alex, I am not going for the AGM. Have not attended one before. Not sure about the rest here.
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LAI QIAN
Muniandy no more 60 sen haha.
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Wilson Ngoh
owh noo.. i tot got 60 cents. lol
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cheng
thanks for the sharing, Muniandy. you have been reading and sharing recently. keep it up.
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Wilson Ngoh
i tot i can top up more at 60 cents. then. i missed it. nvm lo. wait it raise back. monitor for another counters. Elsoft not bad yo.
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LAI QIAN
old horse? what that
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Wilson Ngoh
i think is white horse and black horse lah bro.
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Wilson Ngoh
haha. google translate sometimes can refer but not accurate.
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LAI QIAN
no matter apa horse caan run and make us profit then is good horse
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LAI QIAN
Need to wait many ppl take profit
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LAI QIAN
Tonight nothing happen 0.625 Mayb can't get it...
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LAI QIAN
Congratulations muniandy u get it
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cheng
Hi Muniandy, probably don't have to over analyze it. The index value is just an estimate of the previous low in Apr. lower low and lower high (bearish) versus higher low higher high (bullish). Until new high, higher low is achieved compared to previous months, there isn't much to cheer for still. hope this helps.
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cheng
as for Arbb, best is to disconnect emotions and follow your own entry exit plan. apart from total shares increases from 108M to 112M, I am not sure what causes the panic. Possible that there is expectation on what/how the share price should be. hope this helps.
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cheng
you are welcome, muniandy. you can check from the announcement - additional listing/subdivision of shares. scroll down and you will see total shares. it will dilute the value if the company failed to generate higher earnings. you might want to follow that closely if you are holding it for long term. it's the conversion of PA shares to mother share. mostly retail investors and it makes sense because mother share is higher back then. the conversion is PA value + 0.19 if I am not mistaken.
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cheng
lol, guessed that you are after the chicken stocks euphoria. Possible the uptrend has priced in the good qr. The business nature is seasonal or cyclical if you will. I need time to dig in to its report. share later.
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Wilson Ngoh
Cheng, look up on Layhong also pls. haha
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cheng
lol, guys. that's just showing how much competition out there for chicken stocks :)
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Wilson Ngoh
haha. I am waiting Layhong qr. Hopefully it wont be bad.
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cheng
hi Muniandy, Wilson; I am just sharing my opinions on the ask and its a quick glance on the numbers reported. I maybe wrong and please do your own due diligence and follow your own plan. Chickens and eggs are considered staple food. it's also a control items in Malaysia. hence, profitability depends on ability by the company to control/reduce costs ( cogs - cost of goods sold and net margin ) and economies of scales.
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cheng
looking at Teoseng's numbers, it's has good control on costs whereby the COGS is below 70% and net margin improved from 1% in 2017 to more than 6% in 2018. the company generated approx. $35M fcf in 2018 at the back of higher cost control resulting in higher operating cash flow; negative fcf in 2016 and 2017 - lower ops cash flow, higher capex.
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cheng
based on $35M fcf, total 300M shares, perpetuity growth rate of 3% (world bank forecast of global growth rate) and 12% rate of returns, the per share value is $1.46. with 30% margin of safety, a good entry will be around $1.02. again, this are just my conservative opinions and I might be wrong. hope this helps with your research, Muniandy
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cheng
chose higher rate of returns due to its seasonality/cyclical nature. as for Layhong, cost controls is the biggest challenge despite higher revenue yoy. the COGS is consistently above 80% and net margin below 4.5% over the years. I can't determine its per share value as the company is reporting -ve fcf for the last 3 years. One good thing to note is that the company spent significantly huge capex in 2017 and 2018. Possible to bring down its cogs and improve its margin.
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cheng
it will probably take a while before Layhong makes a comeback. Current price is close to its low in Dec'18. if you are looking to hold longer term, it's ok as long as it doesn't get to a new low. hope this helps, Wilson
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Wilson Ngoh
Wow. Bro. did the analysis quite details. Do you do a blog or something? or planning doing a blog. LOL
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cheng
lol, Wilson. just sharing and exchanging opinions. I get to learn at the same time. that's the fun part. cheers.
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Wilson Ngoh
haha. fundamental analysis alot to learn. ps: i am new. just invest 1 year and still lossing money
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Wilson Ngoh
probably is just profit taking.
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cheng
I am learning too. It's a continuous journey. Good to help each other, speed up learning curve. Cheers and enjoy your long weekends.
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cheng
you are welcome. all the best.
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LAI QIAN
tiba tiba gv deviden
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Wilson Ngoh
QR good or bad i will also buy. but the price matters.
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Henry Chan
I'm waiting for at least 0.55 and below
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LAI QIAN
that no signal qr is good
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cheng
QR should be this week, after AGM probably.
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cheng
current market breadth is still weak. imo - overall klse has yet to reach attractive valuations yet, trade wars causing disruption to supply chain, commodity directions moving forward, overall emerging market and developed market directions. complicated puzzles. Will just take one thing at a time - QR result first.
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cheng
all is good, Muniandy. As shared before, there are emotions involved with hot stocks; instead of objective evidence (valuations, trends). imo - the cycle is about to start (price, time) again, chartist will be in actions; until the trend breaks.
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Alex Loong
cheng, in any circumstance they will convert the icps? since the preference share is irredeemable and conversion price at 61, mean any price at 61 and below is good bargain, it's lower than big boss, unless company declare bankruptcy right?
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cheng
hi Alex, depending on the terms of the ICPS. for D&O, some of the terms for the ICPS is listed in notes 16 of its financial statement in its 2018 annual report page 106. The bosses will not convert to ordinary shares if it is below its implied conversion price of 0.61 cents. Doing so will incur capital loss :) in that sense, it's a good bargain if retail is holding share price below the implied conversion price
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cheng
based on the terms outlined in page 106; 16(e), it is stated that both ICPS and common shareholders are in equal priority upon liquidation, dissolution or winding up. normally, ICPS ranked higher compared to common share holders when it comes to payment of debt or out of assets.
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cheng
I am not sure what is the maturity date whether it's 5 years or x number of years. once it is matured, it will automatically convert to common shares, which means in long term (x years) we should expect total shares for D&O to reach 1450+ million shares.
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cheng
conversion to common shares may also happen earlier if liquidation happens - in this case, if D&O is acquired by another company.
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Alex Loong
thanks cheng
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cheng
you are welcome, Alex.
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cheng
hi Muniandy, every stock has its own valuations. often, retail investor do not have access to information or future prospects as its all based on previous numbers/facts. that's where, some uses technical analysis as stock prices move in trends. the one I mentioned is just one of the reversal patterns in technical analysis - the head and shoulders. it is just an opinion and may not be true.
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cheng
I would suggest to monitor it first as it takes time and volume to form. the head and shoulder top formation means distribution is happening. imo - there are some signs that is building towards that. if 1.07 is a good support, then it's a straight neckline and should see rebound up with lower volume gradually to the same level as its left shoulder, with similar time frame forming the right shoulder. the peak of 1.43 is the head. finally, price will come again from 1.25/1.30 to below the neckline
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cheng
it's just an opinion and hope it helps with your research.
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cheng
you are welcome, muniandy. it can be estimated but it's inappropriate to share as its just an opinion on potential reversal patterns. good to monitor first.
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LAI QIAN
Qr mati liao no miracle
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Tan Jack
kwap got collect leh qr wont be bad ba
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Tan Jack
i think its just the market sentiment now
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Yong Jie Ho
Should we compare Q1,18 and Q1,19 or compare Q4,18 and Q1,19? which one would be the better to determine whether the company is doing good or bad?
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Tan Jack
qr is actually exceed expectations, given how the share price has dropped recently hopefully can rebound from now on
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Yong Jie Ho
alright, thanks Muniandy~
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Alex Loong
satisfy result, within my expectant. next qr might be lower on yoy.
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cheng
agreed. despite a slow down in China as we are all aware, the performance is still within expectations. what is left now is the outcome of the trade wars. imo - a true sustainable growth company is one that is able to consistently grow its revenue or sales, new products introduction and new market if you will. higher spending in RD and incorporation of a new entity for IC design in US is something that is promising too. 2018 recorded total sales of 491M with Q1'18 at 113M sales.
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cheng
Q1'19 recorded 113M sales as well. let's monitor how the sales performance for the next 3 quarters against 2018 total sales volume.
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cheng
btw, seems that it was pretty tensed based on the messages earlier as share price fell to 0.59 cents before rebounded up to close at 0.61 cents. I guessed everyone can sleep well now.
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cheng
lol, it will probably take a while before market breadth starts improving. foreign funds will probably return when KLSE reaches a fair valuations. not there yet but almost. darkest before dawn as the saying goes.
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Wilson Ngoh
i was thinking when the price i top up again. haha..
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cheng
depending on your average, Wilson. imo - at 0.60 cents, it is offering 40% margin of safety, at 0.50 cents, it is offering 50% margin of safety. if you are going for long term, there is no rush.
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Wilson Ngoh
is okay.. lower down my tp then. i was plan to top up when drop 10%. now i need to revised to 20% since market sentiment not good. haha
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Wilson Ngoh
hopefully this counter will come back. haha
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Wilson Ngoh
ya worr.. i am wondering why chic counter like this. last Qr should be quite good. arbb idk lah. now many counters are having discount. hopefully i could buy at some right timing.
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cheng
lol, Muniandy. all is good and your confidence and emotion is charging up again.
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cheng
as shared previously, chicken and eggs are control items in Malaysia. just my opinion and please do your own due diligence. based on the selling pressure observed, it seems that market is pricing in potential slower Q2 compared to Q1.
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cheng
you can monitor the pricing from flfam.org.my whereby it has the informations on the industry. it's the federation of livestock farmers association's of malaysia. it publishes the control items price list
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cheng
looking at the pricing published, the CNY control price for eggs for peninsula Malaysia for grade A, B, and C during the festive season and versus right now for Hari Raya Puasa is showing a difference of approximately 4 cents per egg based on the published price. 10 days locked down price during CNY and almost one month for Hari Raya Puasa (21 May to 19 Jun). you can do the math based on number of eggs produced per day and how much is the impact for upcoming Q2
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cheng
these are just my opinion and it could be wrong. hope it helps with your research.
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cheng
you are welcome, Muniandy. hope it helps with your research.
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Steven Ng
D&O & Vizione 一直再成长，股价属于低位，值得进场投资。
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cheng
hi phooi, market breadth is still weak and we are seeing more than 600 losers counters recently with overall value traded for KLSE less than RM1.5b. the QR for D&O and there is no surprises which is good. imo - it depends on your investment objective whether short term or long term. all of us have been following closely it's fundamentals and financials and we don't see any red flags. I can share my opinions on its technical and hopefully it helps with your research on top of its fundamentals.
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cheng
imo - technically, there are two things that is developing looking at its charts. (1) falling wedge - lower low and lower high within a contracting range (2) bullish divergence whereby prices reach a new low while the oscillator reaches a higher bottom (Feb to May'19) compared to its previous decline (Oct to Dec'18). in technical analysis perspective, it signals a reversal happening soon. these are just my opinions and I may be wrong. hope it helps with your research.
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cheng
hi muniandy, all is good and no concerns from my end. as shared earlier, please monitor the possibility of complex head and shoulder top formations. we have discussed the fundamentals and valuations. next is to look at its technical. interestingly, today's candlestick resembles an inverted hammer at 1.02 :) there is possibility that we should see a rebound moving forward. since you have entered at 1.02, watch for a rebound to 1.18/1.25. At this point, it's good to observe it closely.
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cheng
imo - a reversal at this level will bring it back to where you entered and closing below it will confirm the complex head and shoulder top formations and will bring it to a new low; possible near 50% margin of safety. it will take time for the patterns to evolve and you might want to monitor it. these are just my opinions, could be wrong and hope it helps with your research.
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cheng
hi steven, yes D&O is growing within an industry that is seeing a 7% cagr growth rate annually and it can be boring. there are risks coming from trade wars as its a global business with presence in 6 countries. you can follow the discussions from all the members here and make your own decisions. :) as for Vizione, I am not so sure that it falls within the category of growth stock. a good and safe entry is at 0.84 cents.
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cheng
imo - there are a few things to watch for vizione. it is entering property sectors which is seeing an overhang situation whereby approx rm22 billion of unsold properties as of 2018. affordability remains a big challenge and gov is trying to increase the household income. this will take time. at the back of its impressive performance in 2018 and Q1'19, the company has not been generating positive cash flow. it has high accounts receivable yoy which is something that should be watched closely.
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cheng
you can compare with few of its peers within the construction sectors whether is it a norm. I had a look at gamuda and is not seeing the same high % of accounts receivables. these are just my opinions and could be wrong. hope it helps with your research.
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Jensen Lam
public bank and midf buy call on 24 may with tp 0.85 and 0.8 respectively
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LAI QIAN
haha no more ppl care this counter
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Alex Loong
always buy when ppl was busy with others hot stuff. provided you are confident with company management and growth prospect. in the AGM just over, management mentioned that LED market will having growth of cagr 10.5% by 2026, sounds great to me.
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Steven Ng
Vizione today up 6%
D&O still waiting
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LAI QIAN
D&o sleep well don't kacau
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Tan Jack
kwap itu diam diam collect ticket murah ohhh
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Wilson Ngoh
ops. i wanna catch. but now raise up. haha
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Wilson Ngoh
airasia caught dy loh. waiting airplane engine start.
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Tan Jack
kwap collect another 300k shares
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cheng
Lol, Muniandy. it's school holiday. just came back today. Will reply later in the evening as I need to scroll up and read the asks/comments.
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cheng
hi Wang, I need to have a look at it first. Will reply later ok?
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cheng
hi Muniandy, for Arbb, you can use simple moving averages (SMA) to determine when the cycle starts. in this case, you can use SMA 200 days as a guide. you can set that in your chart. normally, I am using 3 SMAs - 20, 50, 200. every stock has its own valuations and technical analysis can be used as a guide as well. hope it helps.
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cheng
additionally, the previous calculations of 0.51 cents valuations for Arbb has changed as its total share has increased since then. if you are trading it, imo - price range from 0.48 to 0.51 is the price that you should consider to sell unless Arbb is able to generate higher cash flow in future. the bottom range is getting higher per its uptrend 200 days MA but seeing a flat top at +/- 0.51 cents. hope it helps.
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cheng
thanks for the sharing, Alex, Jensen, Jack, Steven and Shi No.
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