有些前辈说， sarawak 的股非常难玩。 没有大赚， 只有小赚或者是亏钱。 不过这个最坏的季度， 公司只用了大概1M的现金储备， 还成功把营运成本减少。 说明了管理层算是优秀， 为最坏做打算， 但是尽量做到最好。

砂劳越还需要很多道路和水供发展。 东马已知基建发展开销需要介于140-150亿左右。 沙巴还有80亿的合约在等待颁发。

如果油气业可以复苏， 对KKB 也是好事。

认同， 前提是政府要有足够资金。
工程部高级部长说他会推动沙巴 Pan Borneo highway 剩下20个， 大概475km 的工程配套的颁发。 估计大概在80亿左右， 是块很肥的肉。

鉴于砂劳越的较好经验。 我猜测政府会使用部分固打制，或者以联营公司的方法让大型承包商参与。 比如说 naim gamuda , zecon kimlun , KKBWCT ,
沙巴的15个配套很多都是小型承包商，导致出现工程进展问题。 同样的时间， 砂劳越750km 现在完成了52% ， 沙巴200KM完成了32% 。

还有， 不管KKB有没有办法标到工程， 他们的产品是工程最需要的， 铁水管。

I'm still holding Mr Wong .
technically now at strong support .

the safety margin of this stock is quite high because it went down to 1.3+ in March. meaning worst to worst the downside is only another 15%.

next month onwards will be budget presentation of the state and federal government .

the theme might come .

cabinet distribution is quite clear , to emphasize the development whenever possible, especially easy msia .

my impression towards work ministry is generally positive . at least under him , some major projects are back on tracks .
during baru bian time , u barely seen anyone working on the project site. but after Fadillah taking over , the contractors came back .

pan Borneo highway Sabah
progress
awarded in between 2017 to 2018
March 2019 10%
Feb 2020 20% , contractors no where to be seen in most place , only 2 functioning contractors

Aug 2020 32%

yes . this is what I afraid .
last 2QR I estimated the oil and gas piping project , the crude profit margin is about 30% . for pan Borneo project , the crude profit margin is about 10-15% .

steel pipe manufacturing business should be thriving .

risk
can the company getting similar profitability from the new oil and gas project ?

i had some review of my homework on KKB , made some adjustment again to avoid overestimation .
KKB should be able to make about at least 10M of profit in next QR with the known contract on hand , as some projects , personal estimate is about 12M . At such situation , RM 1.8 at PE 10 is not too difficult.

just revised the TP , is about 1.85 to 2.1 . I'm guessing the new project is worth about 200-250M . after convertion will be about 130-140M . assuming the construction period is 2 years . its expected to bring about 15-16M of additional revenue , bringing the total revenue to 130-140M per Q , profit 13-15M