Kar Kay Low

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Joined Jul 2020

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是的,每3个月一个季度财报都会重新给市场定价,现在我做的只是等价值回归,时间自然会给答案。
2 days · translate
无聊,以你的逻辑,KL 是个大城市车辆覆盖率100%,谁会有车不坐去坐公共交通?这是你说的
3 days · translate
Uncle Koon 你这里就说Margin Call 害人, 但自己就跑去limit down 的MMAG counter Lets fly hoot 9 e, 你觉得没有人看到?那么双标?那个你就不害人?你不担保MMAG会再跌多80%?
3 days · translate
所以没车的人,没驾照的人,没钱搭Grab的人,一般老人,他们需要如何?为何KL那么发达还需要公共交通?如果人人有车为什么需要起MRT或LRT? 按你的逻辑有车不用为什么会有人用巴士和LRT, MRT? 为什么大城市不把Rapid KL, Rapid Penang 给撤掉?
3 days · translate
请提供霹雳州“人人有车、人人有摩托”的官方统计数据来源
3 days · translate
看见你们的言论真的飙冷汗,二三线城市只是个概念去区分人口密度,就算我把这概念换去你符合马来西亚的国情用大城市,小城市,市镇来区分,有分别吗?所以你解释到大马小城市是无需公共交通?无车人群, 老龄人口, 学生, 低收入人士不需要?退一万步来说:大城市KL到目前为止为什么不废除公共交通系统持续投入巴士, MRT, LRT?为了好看?你觉得那个不需要公共交通的言论站得住脚?还有还有!你说马来西亚国情!我们都知道马来西亚的城市规划并不是一个适合个人长距离步行的国家,依赖私家车多导致塞车变成我国大城市的弊端。你觉得不需要公共交通是work?! 其他基层人士就该徒步走路或用高价买车搭Grab?, 如果你做政府,我跟人民会每个人轮流去你家敲你的头!
3 days · translate
最终篇:“噪音”

在市场里待得足够久,很多人都会走到同一个阶段:
不再缺观点,而是开始对观点本身保持距离。

如果从实用角度出发,市场上的信息其实可以被简单地分成两类。

一类,是无聊的数字。
另一类,是噪音。

无聊的数字,存在于财报、现金流、负债结构、合约年限、派息能力这些地方。它们不预测价格,也不承诺结果,只负责陈述事实。这些数字很少引起讨论,也不会让人兴奋,但它们至少有一个特点——可以被反复验证。

这些数字在短期内往往毫无存在感,但时间一拉长,它们通常比任何观点都更可靠。它们不能保证一定成功,却能持续修正方向,避免在明显错误的路径上越走越远。

另一类,是噪音。

噪音通常很简单,一句话就够了。一个数字、一个方向、一个结论。它不解释前提,也不说明条件,更不需要为结果负责。今天这样说,明天可以完全相反地说。它的存在,并不是为了帮助判断,而是为了占据注意力。

噪音最大的问题,不在于对错,而在于它无法被验证。即使偶尔说中一次,也无法重复使用,更无法成为长期决策的一部分。长期暴露在噪音之中,人很容易用短期变化替代长期逻辑,用即时反应取代原本已经建立的判断。

很多散户真正输掉的,并不是资金,而是注意力。

当一个人开始意识到这一点,行为自然会发生改变。看盘会变少,讨论会变少,表达立场的冲动也会消失。不是因为没有想法,而是已经知道,大多数声音并不值得进入自己的决策体系。

投资走到后面,本质上是一种筛选能力。你不需要不断吸收新观点,也不需要持续输出判断。真正重要的,是守住那些你已经想清楚、并且愿意承担结果的结论。

写到这里,我会停下。

从现在开始,我不会再写任何观点性的东西。
不是因为没有判断,而是因为判断已经完成。

接下来的工作,只剩下一件事:验证。
验证公司是否按预期运作,验证现金流是否持续,验证那些无聊的数字有没有偏离原本的假设。验证失败,就修正;验证成立,就继续等待。除此之外,不再需要解释,也不再需要参与讨论。

市场不缺声音,也不需要更多文字。
有些阶段需要表达,有些阶段只需要执行。

到这里,就够了。
再见。
5 days · translate
SUPER B 你不用理他,他只从“自己不用”的角度,推导出“别人也不需要”。现实中,公共交通的存在不是由“多数人”决定的,而是由:无车人群, 老龄人口, 学生, 低收入与半城市人口和政府的社会稳定需求决定的。公共交通从来就不是“全民都用”的产品。他没有想到在很多二三线城市:MRT 不存在,Grab 成本高, 私家车不代表人人可负担,油价、维修、保险都在上升。他看不到政策逻辑,看不到结构性需求,看不到“非自己”的群体,也看不到时间维度。
6 days · translate
PN17 is often misunderstood because many investors confuse market behaviour with regulatory rules. In reality, PN17 is not triggered by falling share prices, weak sentiment, margin calls, or retail investors giving up. It is a purely regulatory and accounting-based classification under the Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia.

A company is classified as PN17 only when specific financial or audit conditions are met. The most fundamental trigger is negative shareholders’ equity, which occurs when a company’s total liabilities exceed its total assets. This is a balance sheet condition that reflects technical insolvency. Share price movements do not affect this calculation in any way. A company can trade at a very low price and still have positive equity, and in such a case PN17 does not apply.

Another PN17 trigger arises when the external auditor issues a going concern warning in the audited financial statements. This happens when the auditor concludes that there is material uncertainty over the company’s ability to continue operating over the next twelve months. Importantly, this is an auditor’s professional judgment based on cash flow, debt servicing ability, and funding visibility, not on market volatility or investor emotions.

The third major trigger involves debt default without remedy. If a company fails to meet its repayment obligations on loans, bonds, or sukuk, and is unable to resolve the default through refinancing, restructuring, extensions, or formal repayment plans, it may fall under PN17. However, merely having high borrowings, issuing new sukuk, or refinancing existing facilities does not constitute a default. Debt that is being serviced or restructured in an orderly manner does not trigger PN17.

What is critical to understand is what does not cause PN17. A collapsing share price, forced selling due to margin calls, weak trading volume, negative forum comments, or claims that “retail investors are gone” have no regulatory relevance. These are market dynamics, not accounting failures. PN17 is not a punishment for poor stock performance; it is a classification for companies that are financially or operationally impaired at a structural level.

In practice, before anyone claims that a company is “going PN17”, only three questions matter. Does the company have negative shareholders’ equity? Has the auditor raised a going concern issue? Has the company defaulted on borrowings without an effective remedy? If the answer to all three is no, then PN17 does not apply, regardless of how pessimistic the market feels.

This distinction is important because confusing sentiment with regulation leads to false conclusions. Markets can overshoot on fear, but PN17 does not operate on fear. It operates on audited numbers, legal definitions, and formal disclosures.
6 days · translate
Lim Teck Kong, Yew Yin, Koon Yu, YY Koon XD
6 days · translate
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