● To investors who have purchased MAHB shares with the intention of tendering the
shares to the joint offerors for RM11, we recommend calm and confidence that the offer
will ultimately succeed. Given the views of the independent directors, we think that the
most likely scenario is for the joint offerors to achieve at least 75% interest but fall short
of the 90% threshold; this may lead to a slight increase in the offer price to induce the
remaining minorities to accept the offer. Our second-most likely scenario is for the joint
offerors to achieve at least 90% interest. Our third scenario is if the joint offerors achieve
close to 75% stake; we then also expect a modest uplift in the offer price and for the
joint offerors to say that they do not intend to address any shortfall in the 25% public
spread requirement, which is a condition for MAHB to remain listed; this could
encourage the minorities to accept the offer if they do not want to hold unlisted shares
in MAHB. The upside risk to our Hold call is for an uplift in the offer price in the first and
third scenarios above. The downside risk is a fourth scenario whereby minorities
wholeheartedly reject the offer, leading to the joint offerors abandoning their effort to
privatise MAHB; this could cause the share price to correct significantly, in our view.(CGS CIMB)December 23, 2024