PhillipCapital research
NatGate while benefited from significant forex gain during the quarter, we gather that headline profit was also affected by various one offs, including RM18m provision made on product liabilities, RM7m product development costs, and RM20m cost of good revaluation.

i completely lost my interest in natgate at current valuation given its shitty profitability. Now they cant even maintain at least 5% gross profit margin and the best part is: 40% of ai server profit goes to non controlling interest!

I used to place a very huge bet on them months before it caught everyone else attentions. In facts it contributed a very big portion of my profit this year. Too bad this kind of result is just too far from my expectations...

“We will focus on undervalued companies that have low gearing with potential to grow, and good management track record said Tan Chong Koay , the founder and chief strategist of Pheim Asset Management Sdn Bhd

The focus will be on companies with low gearing, attractive pricing, rising profitability, good management, and a positive sector outlook, he added.

“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage.”

Additional to OBO, “Co-packaged Optics” and “Optical I/O” is promising to further shorten electrical paths with highly assembly integration, so that it is possible to deliver even higher bandwidth to ensure better energy efficiency (pJ/bit) and capital expenditure ($/Gbps) over pluggable optics.

https://ase.aseglobal.com/silicon-photonics/

World Largest OSAT provider : ASE

Can see big players look high on this cutting edge technologies .

All the worldwide big tech companies like Nvidia, Tsmc , Foxconn , Ase , Broadcom, Jabil etc mentioned the importance of this technology , can just google , easily found on website . TSMC even formed a silicon allies with UMC , Mediatek, Vanguard , ASE in Taiwan

None of them. These are just the math of economy that do qualitative analysis which in my opinion it is very much subjective and arbitrary depend on how u interprete them. economy = pseudo science.

What i focus is statistics and probabbbility, behaviour financials and game theory. Let the real math and real science guide us in decision making...

but then, luck is crucial haha...Over the last 4 years my average roi was 20% only. With my exceptional performance this year, now my 5 years roi is about 40%.

Of course, all that were done with beta below 1 and the standard deviation of my equity curve stayed below 2% in last 5 years. The only year i didnt achieve positive alpha was last year where i only made single digit return *sigh*

“As generative AI demands more energy and processing power, the data center must evolve—and co-packaged optics can make these data centers future-proof,” said Dario Gil, IBM senior vice president and director of research, in a press release.

IBM says future Connectivity for Data centres lies in CPO

https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-12-09-ibm-brings-the-speed-of-light-to-the-generative-ai-era-with-optics-breakthrough

“The leading GPU providers—AMD and NVIDIA—and semiconductor foundries— GlobalFoundries, Intel Foundry and TSMC—combined with the backing of Advent, Light Street and our other investors underscores the potential of our optical I/O [input/output] technology to redefine the future of AI infrastructure,” said Mark Wade, CEO and cofounder of Ayar Labs, in a press release.

Other investors that participated in the latest funding round include 3M Ventures, USA, and Autopilot, USA. They join existing in

@Derrick
Thanks for the news.
I understand the potential of this technology. The whole industry is pouring billions to make it happen. I think probably we will start to see silicons that are copackage with the optical module appearing in the data center next year. Being early does not equal to being wrong.

TSMC’s silicon photonics work is bearing fruit with its first co-packaged optics (CPO) samples expected to be sent to Nvidia and Broadcom next year, media report, and allow data to speed at 1.6 terabits-per-second (1.6T) over fiber optic connections in AI data centers as early as the 2nd half-2025.

TSMC and Broadcom’s jointly developed microring modulator (MRM) has passed 3nm trial production, and will enable integration of top AI chips into CPO modules, the report says. TSMC is expected to use CoWoS or SoIC for packaging and may work with partners like Shunsin Technology due to packaging complexity.

It has been reported that Taiwan’s TSMC has recently started collaborating with multiple partners, including Korean equipment companies, to develop equipment for silicon photonics processes.

Previously, TSMC announced plans for mass production of silicon photonics by the end of 2025. However, some speculate that this timeline could be accelerated.

TSMC’s key clients include long-standing partners such as NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

TSMC previously announced its plan to mass produce optical semiconductors in 2025. It is estimated to be as early as the second half of next year. This supply chain construction is also interpreted as a move to quickly prepare for mass production. Some say that TSMC's speed of preparation for the optical semiconductor process may accelerate, which could lead to an advance in the mass production schedule.

Thanks, Sea Bobo. I bought it early 2024 when it went down to 50 cents. Did not rebalance when it shot up above 70 cents. However, I rebalanced my positions at 0.60 recently due to the poor external headwinds mainly driven by overvaluation of techs in US. That helps to bring my avg cost lower :) I am hoping its making good progress with the JV plant which is scheduled to start operating by phases starting end of last year. Expected heavy capex to fit out the plant last year and going into this year.

Thanks, Sea Bobo. Btw, I believed Aimflex is fairly priced now given that it is similar to the pp price at 0.13. Will the two Chuah from Luster make their moves now? Probably not yet as Aimflex has announced the delays of pp funds utilisations and also some of the funds from IPO by 36 months to 60 months. Additionally, the two Chuah from Luster remuneration package is totalling about 1M from Aimflex and they are not in the rush. The next move will depend on announcement of the utilisation of the funds.

ermmm... they are the two Chuah from Luster, Andy. Its better to trust the numbers. the previous pp price was 0.127; 0.13 if you will, the last qtr report showing 97M cash eq with 3M borrowings. Approx half of the cash eq are pp funds and IPO funds which has to be utilised. Lets just ignore that for simplicity purpose. Minus the borrowings and that gives you ~0.065 to 0.07 net cash per share. 0.07 and 0.13 are the two references that you can use to compare your entry price, Andy. Basically, being mindful on the risks / premiums you are paying above these levels.

all is well, sea bobo. Still a newbie at Genting. Started buying after Q2'24 results - full qtr impact without hard rock hotel which has been taken down for renovations; ~380 rooms capacity and first batch at 4.02. 2nd batch at 3.62. Waiting for Q4'24 results to be released to add the 3rd batch. It will probably take 2 years to see the results; earliest is 2nd half of 2025.

It was "sold" as the black horse by Derrick. The gung-ho commentaries have been deleted. Aimflex ended up as black swan event in their trading journey. Derrick tried to make a come back by changing names at one point. Too many self proclaimed expert / legend. Lol, no pun intended. Hopefully they will be able to recover their losses. They will need to pray for Luster Chuah to speculate Aimflex.

I cut my losses and moved on to other markets. My bad for all the previous comments, but it's true that Chuah is an impressive entrepreneur. Just talk to him, and you'll know. SiPh is not a new thing. Just FYI, Nv NPO is ramping up next year. TSEM is the biggest beneficiary, but the testing part is the most lucrative one in my opinion.

The only clue is the goodwill numbers. No change means no impairment and the goodwill arising from the previous acquisitions still intact; investment in esontech has not failed if you will. Can't tell from the revenue figures or growth in Malaysia geo/mfg segment.