Going forward Bermaz outlook looks very gloom maybe not all doom. Bermaz management this time really underestimated the change in the automotive market. They bet on Kia Sportage as volume contributor also is too optimistic. Looking at the Kia brand in the past only Kia Forte 6 speed manage to capture some market share the rest of the model never really sell well. As for current Kia sportage is just really lack of competitive features and is too expensive for a korean car. RM 190k for top specs

Yup instead of betting on Kia, should expedite the sale for cx60 and cx80. Even though the sales volume maybe not much due to higher price but at least the margin will be good. Belief the cx60 and cx 80 will able to steal some market share from BMW X3 and Mercedes GLA and GLC.

today CIMB forecast car sales will drop 7% due to the targeted subsidies for RON95. more higher then previous MAA forecast 4.5% drop.
the targeted subsidies is expected introduction in July 2025.
i think this will mainly impact foreign car brand, the malaysia local car brand might eat foreign car brand market share.

Bermaz should stop SBB as this only create opportunity for short selling because coming 3rd quarter result will be ugly. Instead should see any alternative to grab back market share from chinese vehicles. Honda Malaysia already making move by offering free maintenance and heavy discount

As for earnings, 10k units means days of 300M to 400M revenue per quarter and 20M to 30M net profit per quarter should be expected. As they are good management in the past as KC mentioned, it should suffice to keep them going.

Its probably timing and models availability, cw yeo. the sst exemption which started in 2020 and extended to Jun'22 drove the sales in the industry. thereafter, ev tax exemption in 2023 and CBU EV tax exemption ending by Dec'25 and CKD EV tax exemption ending by Dec'27. Bermaz missed the 2023 window time frame and all the way to 2024. Xpeng, Changan Deepal are just coming into the picture end of last year and mid of this year. Keep an eye on coming year end budget 2026. An extension of CBU EV tax exemption will be a booster.

I used the link you provided in top of this commentary thread to compare G6, Choong. BYD Atto and Tesla Model Y. 131 units in Dec'24 for G6 and BYD Atto 220 in the same period. The drop in BYD Atto is more significant compared to G6. Will be using the same link to see how X9 is doing against the same segment.

Speaking about CX5 :) You can try to compare the c-segment SUV data from the link for CX-5, Proton X70 and Honda CRV, Choong. Zoom in to 2023 to 2025. You will notice the following observations: (1) 2023 CX-5 numbers is averagely ~550 to 600 per month; pretty consistent if you will (2) The divergence between CX-5 and the X70 and CRV became obvious starting 2024. CRV took the lead right from the start in Jan'24 and all the way until Dec'24 averagely ~ 900 to 1k units per month. X70 jumped into the lead after Aug'24 and took the lead in C-segment SUV from Sep all the way to Dec'24 with avg more than 1k units per month for the last 4 months of the year. CX-5 on the other hand maintained the average in 2024 until Jul'24. Aug'24 onwards fell below 500 units per month and all the way until now. (3) Few observations that I am thinking led to the divergence in 2024; excluding year end promotion. Please add on if you have additional observation - (a) new 6th gen CRV launched in Dec'23 (b) CX5 launched facelift model in Jan'24 (c) X70 launched facelift with the same price! (4) What's in BAuto's mgmt thinking second half of 2024 for CX5 - possible the planning for 2025 onwards - CX5 limited edition / new CX5 2026 model; dependency on Mazda global launch plans though :) And models availability for sale timing means 2025 maybe a low cycle for BAuto but I personally will not make the same conclusion for 2026 at this moment; not to mention given the amount of share buybacks executed so far. Just my personal opinions, could be wrong. Hope it helps.

Hi Cheng. I din when through until so details like you.Really hope your expectations for Bermaz is right. But recently saw many dealers and sales rep from Bermaz really pushing for sales by advertising and posting videos in social medias

Hi Cheng. The only explanation that I can find from the report is the 150 mil were distributed as dividend for 1st, 2nd and special dividend. The amount of the dividend payout is similar to the amount decline in the reserve. Usually reserve fund can only be use to purchase assets, reinvest in business or distribute as dividend

should not be like that. You have to use last year reserves add total comprehensive income and make the adjustment for transaction with owners - dividend is going out so have to minus, esos is plus I think since getting money and other movement. Need to have a look inside the statement of equity.

Deposit with financial ins same.
Cash up a lot.

Reserves down.
Borrowing up.

The reserves decreases bcos total dividend payout is >> total comprehensive income. No surprises with lower 3rd dividend as dividend situation has surfaced from the last two qr. Total dividend payout ctd is approx 300M. Lower dividend, lower deduction from reserves.

BAuto has consistent track records of keeping a clean balance sheet, Choong. I was expecting days of 300M to 400M qtrly revenue and 20M to 30M net profit but it delivered a 600M revenue. I thought BAuto must have turned rogue as sales data were low but did not find any abnormalities from "aggressive accounting" from the balance sheet. All is well. Its just the financial reporting timing versus the sales data; its Nov, Dec and Jan data.

The ops margin is below 10% still in the latest qr and CX5/Mazda cars margins seems to be the anchor for its margins in the past. A lower Mazda car sales means lower ops margins for BAuto. CX60, CX80 is moving up to premium / luxury SUV segment. Makes sense that it will improve its margins. In fact, any new models launching tends to boost up the sales figure as can be seen from the car registration data. CX5 limited edition and the new CX5 2026 model should be good for its margins too.

Not immediately, share account. Slowly but surely. Personally, I believed the fair value of BAuto is higher than 80 cents :) Not sure what are the assumptions that the analyst baked into its valuation model. After all, different analyst will have different fair value depending on the models and variables used in their calculation.

Thanks, Choong. EPMB makes money, BAuto makes money :) Btw, if EPMB can assemble EV car, it changes the whole situation then. CKD EV tax exemption expiring in 2027. BAuto can tap into EPMB EV car assembly to enjoy the benefits of the tax exemption.

Yup. During the acquisition of EPMB share, Bermaz got mentioned one of the reason of buying into EPMB is to gain certain percentage of production capacity for their EV models. Hope after going through this bad times Bermaz able to expedite things to gain back market share and investor confidence