Lol, u bought a value trap. Prepare to lose money. So many investors don't understand the severity of the garment industry in vietnam

1. More manufacturers opening factories in Vietnam, means more competition

2. Big brands want to diversify outside of Vietnam and China. Vietnam is already full, no longer the preferred supplier.

3. Magni tech can only supply to Nike. Huge risk. There is no way for Magni tech to manage risk in no. 1 and no. 2.

4. Value trap.

“越来越多竞争者了” 这句话很对，但没重点。投资者常常会听到这种结论。

而这句话你可以放去90%的公司都对。
我唯一想到BURSA没竞争者的公司是TENAGA， 哪应该投资它吗？看回股价图你会想说没对手的公司股价表现还好罢了。

“很多竞争” 这句话，如果哪公司股价横摆或下跌，你会发现这句话特别的可以被放大。可是，绝大部分生意每年都很多竞争者，那代表新的就可以赚钱生存吗？
基本上妈妈都懂，不管新旧竞争者，到了一个时间都产生80:20 法则现象。

越来越多公司去越南开工厂，所以NIKE就要给新进来的工厂代工生产？

NIKE的服装生产商有几百个，分布几十个个国家。首五大生产商占据约50%NIKE服装生产量。最主要分布国家在越南、中国、Cambodia 等等，大马的PRLEXUS也有，但有看到它拿到转移的订单吗？

再看看如果NIKE那么容易从越南转移生产，那最新汇报会，NIKE就不会下调接下来的生意预测和承认越南影响它们的货源。而疫情是迟早会放缓的事情，为了它而找个新的国家？应该没看NIKE如何做supply chain management 的报告。

关于最近棉花上到10年最高。需要担心吗？可以担心，但不用过分。你看回这十多年人工费和原料的inflation, 再看看MAGNI 的gross profit margin,是由单位数去到双位数。证明管理良好和有得到更高科技和margin的服装生意。


单一客户RISK，这是投资者需要关心的。
但风险也可以做事前管理的。
可以问问自己为何要投资MAGNI？多半是股息和美的财务状况吧！
哪BURSA没其他选择了？

如果真的要投资，做好功课后，就是资金分配和买入价格。还有是持续追踪了。
有几年老板都表达要做收购新的相关性业务。但目前还没什么宣布。

愚人共勉

Fool, do you know wat happen to the furniture industry in Vietnam? Their profit almost collapse due to competition from China investment. Now the same thing is happening to Garments. China is going into Vietnam and cut prices to entice large manufacturers like Nike and bid up labour and raw materials cost. The last quarter profit fell 20 percent because Vietnamese production factors are getting more expensive due to scarcity.

GL兄早。你提出的言论都好像“世界末日”。 很严重。可以给点source of info吗？
越南家私COLLAPSE？ 我看了POHUAT越南业绩还没崩。

中国台湾自己本身的制造商包括成衣代工早就移了和分散工厂去越南。也不只是越南，还有其他国家。

员工费用起,都是一直在发生。大马也是。
将应该很多公司不能投资了。有哪家公司长期员工费用跌的给我知道一下，我去研究。（不过长期可以让员工费用跌的，应该没什么员工了）

事实上几乎每一两年都看到MAGNI 提到员工费用增加。这个疫情，特别是工厂生产的，low running rate, 公司为疫情做的防疫，每一名员工费用都在增加。


最后，被取代这个东西。是时间问题。80%的公司，都会被取代，只是时间问题。
投资不是我买了就放着，而是买了继续追踪。在两年后你我都不知道发生什么事情。但你的预测已经把话说到发生了。
也许还没两年，我已经套利走人了。

忘了说我的MAGNI是股灾买进的。
为何股灾买？因为它已经是slow growth,我把它当成流动FD来布局。

至于就算现在这个价格，如果我是新买的，我依然会分批买入。


Cheers

而且我在想第一和第二的逻辑：

中国进来抢人和原料，然后低价吸引NIKE。

既然那么吸引，做么我要switch哦？

garment manufacturing in vietnam is matured enough that all the supply chain is properly set up, be it trading of raw materials or spare parts for machines. These facilities are not build in just a blink of the eye. it cost time and money to move your supply chain. Not to mention the human capital that vietnam has, in general hardworking and skillful.

Fool and Tiang very bad QR ahead. I understand what you two said. I m okay with what you said.

But QR will be very bad. Go check Eclat, another Nike supplier. Its September sales fall alot.

I expect next QR for Magni to be around RM 12 million

Bro GL, Eclat QR very bad.. you see the share price, August sale drop, share price drop around 18% from top to bottom. Now from top to YTD price drop around 9% …

http://www.eclat.com.tw/en/financials_revenue.php

Magni haven’t announce nx Q result. Share price already adjust after the announcement of lock down at Vietnam.

I agree nx Q is bad. ( I think all the shareholder and ppl here also can make a same conclusion)

But the problem is short term of long term ? Just like glove sector , market start adjust share price last year, but QR report extremely good until recently..


Market adjust Magni bad result already after the announcementNx .
when QR come out, if something out of unexpectation, then share price adjust again.


Cheers

If covid make the result drop, share price drop, Im happy, because this is temporary problem.

And some investor still too focus to use covid to predict the result and share price movement …

Then they will see very Un logic, some company growth but share price no move, some lost share price no drop… unless Q to Q core earning or lost is huge , then share price will adjust again.

You can see most of the share price already adjust till PRE pandemic level even covid still cause some factory short down.. profit drop.

Market react very fast and efficient..

Cheers

China businesses including Taiwan is gaining even more. If you check Nike's website, you will discover the top garment supplier by workforce is Shenzhou, a very big Chinese garment company.

The rest are smaller than Shenzhou but tied, they are Tai Wah, Nice Apparel, Nanyang. Magni Tech is around the 5th to 6th largest by workforce. All those competitors I mentioned are Chinese companies, Tai Wah is a Malaysian company. But they all have control over raw materials, unlike Magni Tech

GL, I’m really appreciate your comment. Can you give me the name of the competitor?
Cause yesterday you said China came in Vietnam, lower the price attract Nike.

Today you ask me why… you give me the name.. I do a fact find, then only I can find out the real problem …
Thanks

Nike Sale went up like a mad pass 5 years..

我不知道你有没有看NIKE过去5年的SALE啦。
你的“ 形容词” 都可以让陷入紧张一下如果那个人没去查证。

Nike 过去5年，前面都是6-7% growth only. 2020 还跌。最新才突破，加上去年低的SALE，最新呈现双位数19%。
而且NIKE的主要成长来自鞋。


MAGNI最新年报2021业绩也是历史最高业绩。

Cheers

Fool, I do not know who is getting the orders. But based on Nike's annual report, the top 5 garment suppliers to Nike inc are getting more and more market share each year. But I believe it is actually the top 3 who are getting the orders.

In the same period, China's market share to Nike drop from almost 30% to only 20%, Vietnam's market share went from 20% to 30%. I believe this is because China manufacturers are migrating factories to Vietnam.... continue above, I edit comment above

Ya. Thanks for edit bro GL… China government long time ago already want to move up the level of their manufacturing sector .. to avoid meddle income trap…

The top 5 contribute 50% of Nike’s garment production..
Magni very small compare to them, but still manage the growth.
My forecast last time is Magni will have single digits growth in sales due to the industry’s natural.
But Magni stil can perform double digit in ROE, ROA , gross margin … consider very good for this kind of company.


But something change for Nike.now they can use technology and data to growth doubled digit for top line, which I think is good for Magni too.


Cheers. Thanks for your sharing too..

Is very very very very very little… pls go and check back all the buy sell announcement …

And , the director whole family still got 51% holding in total..

Cheers

1）MAGNI有回购。如果真的出现风险，长期关注这里的分享，也不会出现大亏的情况卖掉。
2）在疫情期间，是会出现供过于求的现象。然而越大的公司，拥有更充足的资源以及储备，经得起时间的考验。
3）请看看MAGNI的RETAINED PROFITS有多少。是的，他接下来的QR会糟糕，无可否认。但是你认为奢侈品的市场会萎缩？
4）买入MAGNI，都是看他未来会有好前景，好的回酬。要立刻看见高回酬，MAGNI不适合您。

MAGNI只是我众多买入的股票其中之一。只要做好风险管理，我相信MAGNI不会让我失望。

@Lee Keat兄，不客气。
我提供的只是消化资讯后的看法，请把它当作你做功课的方向，先别管对错，这样你可以训练思考能力。

祝福你在投资路上累积丰厚财富

Cheers

我8年前读过他的书。中文版，封面黑色，字青色。
后来卖了。当时年轻，读了觉得不错但没多大领悟。

还好最新中文版封面更漂亮 ，又有几位大师的注解，阅读起来领悟比较好。

好书！

认同NIKE再度成长。。
一些传统大企业开始加大科技的效率来再度成长。从广告的效率、运动apps等等，让大象再次飞翔。

至于无限印钱造成股市大起。。
我个人觉得钱多了，但美国传统行业的股，如果没搭上科技便利，就算有QE，股价对比成长股，特别是科技的，简直差太远了。

读一些分析说股市大起和这十年印钱加上低息有关。我其实不否认水涨船高这说法。
但可以看到钱是投入哪一个行业。
也造就了在美国value & growth 的讨论。


Cheers

疫情前的十年，很多传统好企业，股价真的麻麻低。
举例子美国银行，比起08年金融海啸，体质更好了，可是股价回不到高峰。
但疫情后加速它们的科技投资，股价差不多回到去高峰期。

投资MAGNI的的股友，以后其实也间接受益与NIKE 扩充。NIKE几年前营收单位数成长。最新是18%加来到历史新高的营业额，所以我觉得MAGNI会受益。

至于要不要投资NIKE，或者MAGNI一定收益于NIKE扩张吗？我没有绝对答案。

祝福大家。