This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on December 4, 2023 - December 10, 2023

US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Austan D Goolsbee, who sit on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), were scheduled to be the last Fed speakers at Spelman College last Friday (Dec 2, 12am Malaysian time) ahead of the FOMC blackout period from Dec 2 to 14.

The blackout policy limits the extent to which FOMC participants can speak publicly. Reportedly, Fed officials schedule important speeches just before the blackout period begins in order to guide market participants on the upcoming meeting to manage market expectations and to avoid surprises.

Investors are said to be watching for signals that the US central bank will bring an end to its interest rate hikes. The next FOMC meeting will be held on Dec 12 and 13.

Meanwhile, the CEOs of major US banks will testify on regulatory oversight before the US Senate banking committee on Wednesday.

The US is expected to release its initial jobless claims on Friday. “We think it may inch up to 220,000 from 218,000 claims reported on Nov 30,” UOB Global Economics and Markets Research says in its weekly outlook. On the same day, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December will be out and it is projected to be at 61.6 points from 61.3 in November.

Back home, the Kemaman parliamentary by-election in Terengganu was held on Saturday, Dec 2, between Barisan Nasional’s Jeneral (B) Tan Sri Raja Mohamed Affandi Raja Mohamed Noor and PAS’ Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, also known as Dr Sam. The Election Commission expected 70% of the electorate to cast their votes despite it being the rainy season on the East Coast.

The by-election had to be held after the Terengganu Election Court decided on Sept 26 to annul the win by PAS candidate Che Alias Hamid in the 15th general election last year.

On the corporate front, engineering support services provider CPE Technology Bhd will make its debut on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on Thursday, with an initial public offering (IPO) price of RM1.07 per share that values the company at RM671.42 million. Some RM179.58 million was raised from the IPO, which was oversubscribed by 17.69 times.

Companies set to hold their annual general meeting this week include YTL Power Bhd, YTL Corp Bhd and Malayan Cement Bhd (Tuesday); Sports Toto Bhd, MUI Properties Bhd and Alam Maritim Resources Bhd (Wednesday); Gamuda Bhd (Thursday); and YNH Property Bhd and Supermax Corp Bhd (Friday).

On Thursday, Bank Negara Malaysia will release its data for its international reserves as at Nov 30. On the same day, the Department of Statistics Malaysia is set to release the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Indicators for 2022.

In the courts, on Tuesday, the 1Malaysia Development Bhd-Tanore graft trial before judge Collin Lawrence Sequerah continues. On Friday, the Federal Court will hear Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor’s application for leave to nullify her solar hybrid project graft case. She is challenging the appointment of Datuk Seri Gopal Sri Ram, who acted as senior deputy public prosecutor in the case. The High Court had convicted Rosmah and sentenced her to a 10-year jail term and RM970 million fine.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) are set to make their monetary policy decisions on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday respectively.

UOB, citing a Bloomberg survey on Dec 1, says 10 analysts including UOB expect RBA to keep its cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% but one analyst anticipates a hike of 25 basis points (bps) to 4.6%. “While we are keeping our policy outlook unchanged, the chance of another interest rate rise remains a live option, especially amid concerns inflation will remain stubbornly high for longer than expected,” it adds.

On BoC’s policy decision, UOB says a Bloomberg poll of 33 analysts revealed that 31 expect the Canadian central bank to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 5%. However, one analyst is expecting a 25bps hike to 5.25% while another expects a 50bps hike to 5.5%.

As for RBI’s decision, UOB says a Bloomberg survey found that all seven analysts expect the Indian central bank to keep its policy rate on pause. “With headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation likely to remain above RBI’s 4% target until late 2024, we expect RBI to keep peak policy rates unchanged through most of 2024 to anchor the disinflation process,” the research firm says.

The 28th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP28) at Expo City in Dubai, the UAE, which began on Nov 30 will continue until Dec 12.

Germany will release its October trade data on Monday, while Japan will release the Tokyo November CPI inflation figure on Tuesday. The October industrial production data will be announced by France and Spain on Tuesday and Italy and Germany on Thursday.

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