Analysts continue to like Velesto Energy Bhd due to its strong free cash flow trajectory, rig utilisation which is expected to be stronger and the group’s ability to pay above profit after tax level for dividends – without affecting its cash position.

Kenanga Research in a report to clients noted that Velesto had recently announced that it was disposing of its Naga 3 drilling rig to PT Indonesia Drilling Energy for US$63mil, with an expected disposal gain of RM1.4mil.

The valuation of disposal is fair, being sold close to book value and the implied 10 times price-to-earnings ratio based on its financial year ending Dec 31, 2026 (FY26) assumptions, it said.

It is, however, positive for Velesto from the balance sheet perspective, as it will yield an additional three sen cash per share, which could be allocated for dividends.

“We maintain forecasts, a target price of 25 sen on an unchanged price-to-book value of 0.7 times, and maintain our ‘market perform’ call.

“We assumed a dividend of three sen per share for FY26, yielding 12%, which could be higher if the company is willing to pay out more cash from the disposal to streamline its asset base and refocus on its more premium fleet,” Kenanga Research said.

In the report, the research house said risks to its call included a global recession bringing oil prices lower, a higher occurrence of breakdowns in its ageing rig fleet and weaker-than-expected jack-up rig demand in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, TA Research said it viewed the disposal as strategically sensible and earnings-neutral.

“Naga 3 is an older asset and has been non-operational throughout FY25 and hence was not contributing meaningfully to earnings.

“Its divestment is therefore consistent with management’s stated strategy to optimise the fleet and focus on higher-spec premium rigs, while gradually shifting toward a more asset-light operating model.

“Importantly, the disposal price sits within the independently appraised fair value range (US$60mil to US$70mil), suggesting no value leakage.”

TA Research noted that while Velesto will forgo potential charter income from Naga 3, it believed the impact is manageable given the group’s continued focus on premium jack-ups and operating efficiency.

The balance sheet impact is marginally positive, with net asset per share improving to 32 sen (from 31 sen), post-disposal and gearing remaining low at 0.07 times, preserving financial flexibility, it added.

The research house said it was making no change to its earnings forecasts, as the absence of contribution from Naga 3 had already been factored into its FY25 to FY27 assumptions, given that the rig was non-operational throughout FY25.

The disposal gain is non-recurring and therefore excluded from our core earnings forecasts, TA Research said.

After the disposal of naga 3, it actually benefit to velesto financial as the NA and EPS will increase, NTA will go to about 0.32. The negative side is Velesto will not get any revenue from Naga 3 but in fact it actually idle for quite some time.

For me, it’s a good news and which suits for Velesto strategy. But our opinion does not lead to any outcome, let see how’s market react tomorrow.