Why War Doesn’t Immediately Boost Kelington???

Typical market reaction to war:

Phase 1 (already happened)
-Oil & gas upstream
-LNG / crude oil

Phase 2 (Happening!!!!)
-Petrochemicals (like PCHEM)

***Petronas Chemicals (PCHEM)***
• Upstream: natural gas feedstock
• Downstream: fertilizers, methanol, polymers
• Direct exposure to:
-Oil prices
-Gas prices

Key idea:
It’s a “commodity producer”
-A classic cyclical / commodity stock

Phase 3 (not yet)
-Industrial gas / hydrogen / carbon capture


***The REAL market structure now (very important)***
Think like this:
Stage Theme:

1)
Oil & Gas
✅ already played (volatile)

2)
Petrochemical
⚠️ selective

3)
Industrial Gas (Kelington)
❌ not started

4)
Hydrogen / CCS
❌ still story

Bursa Malaysia Capital Rotation: Oil & Gas → Industrial Gas / Semiconductors

Stage 1 – Oil & Natural Gas

Examples:
• Hibiscus
• Velesto
• Dayang

Drivers:
• Rising oil price
• Rising natural gas price
• First wave of capital inflow

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Stage 2 – Fertilizer / Coal

Examples:
• Fertilizer stocks
• Coal stocks

Drivers:
• Higher energy costs
• Second wave rotation

Reason:
Natural gas is a major input for fertilizer production.

⸻

Stage 3 – Industrial Gas / Hydrogen

Example:
• Kelington

Signals:
• Potential breakout soon
• Market funds starting to pay attention

This is often considered the third wave opportunity.

⸻

Stage 4 – Semiconductor / Advanced Manufacturing

Drivers:
• Chip factory expansion
• Ultra High Purity (UHP) gas systems

This stage can trigger a major rally if semiconductor capex increases.

⸻

Possible Next Market Focus
• Industrial gas supply contracts
• Hydrogen concept stocks
• Semiconductor factory expansion

⸻

Overall Rotation Pattern

Energy Crisis → Market Rotation

1️⃣ Oil & Gas
2️⃣ Natural Gas / Fertilizer
3️⃣ Industrial Gas / Hydrogen
4️⃣ Semiconductor / High-tech Manufacturing