All we care is 5199 continue producing crude oil and condensates. Everyone knows bad weather can stop offshore platforms from producing oil. Oil companies must upkeep their oil facilities. They have to meet local / international statutory requirements and regulations. They do this to ensure its safe for everybody.
They need to do planned shutdowns. Its quick. 3 - 4 days or a week. Minimum 2 times a year.
They need to do major shutdowns or turnarounds. This happens min once every two years minimum. They can stretch to once every three years.
These ppl are very smart. They usually pick to do these during bad season especially this time of year. While they cannot do oil production, they do maintenance instead.
When bad seasons are over, they will go full swing.
Expect they will produce 2x or 3x more than previous quarters.

I am looking forward to 5199 next quarter financial report. 5199 just acquired TotalEnergies EP(Brunei) BV. Brunei Energy hasnt contribute to 5199 earnings yet. 5199 aims to produce 50,000 barrels a day. Current price 1.93 to 2.345 is very close.

There always risks in our business. Its how we manage them and go about them.

History shows everytime war ends, prosperity ensued. Initially, it will be difficult. Massive layoffs especially those working in military complexes. Factory shutdowns. And things will pick its up again after that.

Crude oil existential threat are EV and oil shales. EV is struggling. They are working hard to come out with a practical batteries & infrastructures. There are solid state battery, Li-Ion batteries. And Fuel cell technology is at infant stage and they need 50 years to come out with one. Not to mention, there are expensive and a piece of junk once you own them and you will find a headache to find someone to sell to.

EU carmakers warned EU commission recently they will make EURO4.3bil loss & production cut in EV unless EU-UK tariffs deadline is extended. There's massive layoffs and production cuts in companies such as VW, Audi, Fiat, Tesla, GM, Rivian, Nissan and many more.

Oil shales with its fracking problem. They need tonnes of water. They also need to excavate sands that come out with their fracking process. Shell sold one of their asset in Canada. Big Oil companies begin to dispose their RE assets as they found they are expensive to maintain and they are many technical issues to deal with. When winter comes, there is no wind. When there is hailstorm, they can damage solar panels.

Beijing is on the slump but they are working hard to turnaround. Beijing will introduce stimulus measures to support economic growth and they are on target to meet their GDP growth this year. No matter what US & EU do to the Chinese, Beijing always prevail. Now, there is BRICS and North Korea becomes Russia's ally. Venezeula & Iran also included.

valuation is the key. if you buy at high valuation you got no margin of safety. if u buy at low valuation you got some mos. plus u buffer 30~40% discount technically u bought at bargain! plus hibiscus still growing,so valuation will getting cheap if demand low vs improving qr.

EU now is in recession especially Germany. EU has been enjoying cheap gas and crude oils all these years. Then came Traffic light party in Germany promised they will be independent from Russia. They bombed Nordstream. Not only they have to import LNG from US, they have to build LNG Regassification Plant to convert LNG to household gas. Buying LNG from US is already expensive. Build a LNG Regassification made it worst. They need power so bad they have to import electricity from the French. All those Wind power, solar power and whatever, they found inadequate to fulfill their needs.

You need hydrocarbon products not only for generating power plants and stuffs, they also need hydrocarbons in plastics, chemicals, bio medical products and a whole lot more. They are doomed.
The Rest of the World now sees there is a lot of opportunities in Africa, Euroasians and emerging countries. These new world we call BRICS+ has GDP higher than G7 countries. Demand in crude oil will eventually rise up when they make investments and development in those countries.

Mind you, US, French, Germany colonizers have been kicked out from Africa. There are more cooperations between Africa countries and Russia & China there.

Iran is now a stabilizing factor in Middle East. There are new trading routes from East (China, Vladistostock - India - Iran - St. Peterberg). Iran starts trading with Russia using rubbles. Russia introduced Mir card. BRICS introduced payment system via Central banks with bypass SWIFT.

You still watching Netflix?!!