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Lets look at this objectively.
1 If Israel decides to retaliate by striking at Iran’s oil infrastructure, then the most logical target would be the 111 year old Abadan Refinery across the Shatt Al-Arab River bordering between southern Iraq and Iran. This single refinery accounts for roughly a quarter of Iran’s daily domestic fuel supply. This won't have effect on world crude oil price. Israel might consider this option.
2 Striking the country’s largest crude oil export terminal (Kharg Island) however would risk world crude oil price entering triple dollar digits. Iran is currently exporting as much oil to China as Saudi Arabia.
Surely Iran will launch counter strike. What then?
1 Israel is small. Israel only has 3 offshore gas fields, Tamar, Leviathan and Karish (which they got it from Lebanon after they ended maritime dispute in 2022). Tamar offshore gas platform was hit by Iranian missile and were captured and gone viral online.
2 Power plants. There are more than 83 power plants in Israel!!! BUT only 3 of them are more than 1,000 MW Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plant. What interesting about these power plants are they use natural gas supplied by Egypt via a gas pipeline running from Arish, Sinai Peninsular to Ashkelon (just a few kilometer offshore Gaza Strip). If US can sabotage Nord Stream gas pipeline, why not Arish - Ashkelon.
3 Nuclear Power Plants. Israel has no nuclear power generation BUT they have ONE nuclear reactor at Negev Nuclear Research Center near Dimona which were also targeted recently.
Tension remains high. We see Iran is garnering support from all around the world and getting even more bolder e.g. FM visit to Lebanon, Imam Ali Khamenei led Friday prayer recently, Iran President visit to Qatar and Houthi's attacks on over 40 ships in the Red Sea & Gulf of Aden and etc.
Crude oil price remains elevated for the time being.
Nuclear weapons - We all aware there is so much hype on Israeli possesses nuclear warheads BUT we do know this. They have to do nuclear tests especially underground nuclear testing e.g. India, Pakistan & North Korea. So far, Israeli has done none. In fact, several key politicians demanded Israeli to use nuclear weapons on their enemy e.g. Syria in 1970 and Amichai Eliyahu early last year. And yet no nukes so far. We believe Israeli hasnt possess nuclear weapon.
But last week, there was a 4.6 richter scale earthquake in Iran yesterday. Its epicentre in Aradan, Semnan province, at a shallow depth of just 10 km around 10:45 PM local time. USGS also confirmed this. This particular earthquake was a bit extraordinary. There were no aftershocks. Its signatures are very similar with any other nuclear tests by Pakistan, India, North Korea and Russia.
Iran's VLCCs are found anchored away from Kharg Island. Crude oil supplies remains tight as of now.
Kebanyakan nuclear power plant Iran terletak di bahagian Barat Iran. Refinery & Storage tanks terletak di bahagian Selatan Iran. Jarak Israel & Iran di antara 1,000 hingga 1,500km bergantung ikut laluan. Ada 3 laluan udara. 1 Israel - Turkey - Iran; 2 Israel - Syria - Iran; 3 Israel - Semenanjung Arab - Iran.
Israel suka guna laluan 3. US ada aircraft fuel tanker standby selalu isi minyak dekat Bahrain. Israel suka guna laluan 3 utk misi pengeboman pelabuhan & oil storage tank di Yemen.
Israel mungkin terpaksa guna kaedah sabotag.
Options remain OPEN.