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Your analysis is quite good but in share market you need to consider a few rules. 1.Buy on bad news. 2.what is support level? 3. What is the world talking about-recovery. If you don't think deeper, then u will end up saying market is irrational. But the last rule, nobody knows when the price will up or down. You can only predict.
Now the price seems to have adjusted for the drop in May Sales and the FMCO. Monitor, might go down a bit more and if buyers start to go in, can buy. I have keyed in Buy order at 1.67 will monitor and adjust. If got selling pressure, change to lower price and buy if buyers come in, just buy at higher price.