Ah Tan's comment on MSM. All Comments

Ah Tan
11 Like · Reply
MSM (大马糖厂)-糖朝回归是否可行?

公司简介:成立于1959年的MSM由大马首富兼糖王郭鹤年带领下日渐变大直至2010被FGV以12.2亿令吉买下。为什么会卖?这故事说来话长所以就不提了。(这里省下一万字)

FGV 买下MSM 后于隔年 (2011)上市于大马交易所以筹集4.22亿令吉。当年上市价格为RM 3.38, 市值约24.5亿令吉。如今MSM的产量世界排名第八。有两间厂房各位于柔佛和槟城北海。

?其实一直以来MSM 都是稳稳炒米粉的公司,公司一路来的盈利都在2至3亿之间而一年大约派两毛钱的股息。2016年业绩开始走下玻因为当时原糖价格(MSM 的原料)从2015年年中的价格US$0.12/Ibs 上升至2016年年中的US$0.22/Ibs再加上本地市场竞争激烈(很多AP进口商抢市场)。当然个人认为这可能只是管理层的藉口因为当时的原糖价格也不比2011 年的US$0.29/Ibs 高(2011年原糖价历史新高不过依然赚钱)。过后就算原糖价格再度滑落至US$0.12/Ibs业绩也没起色。由于业绩的一蹶不振所以股价也一路跌直仙股为止。不过好消息是2020 第四季度业绩似乎看到了一丝丝的翻身机会因为公司突然大赚5千万令吉。

?2020Q4的翻身归公于出口销量与去年同期相比有所增加和更高的产能利用率以及更高的利润率(margin)达到14.80%。这效果是源自于2020期间MSM将玻璃市的业务陆陆续续的搬去槟城北海和柔佛的厂以达到更好的效率从而降低成本以及提高利润率。

?令吉的走强和旧高价原糖合同约到期也同时帮助了制糖成本在2020Q4成功降到每吨355令吉(相对于2019年的每吨404令吉)。该公司也在当季也调涨了国内的糖售价5%至每公吨RM2506。

?不仅如此MSM 也已经完全的退出了亏钱的橡胶,棕榈油和芒果业务。柔佛州炼油厂的产量从之前的80%提高至2020Q4的92%。而玻璃市旧厂地皮也正在待售。

?这也证明了公司有达到该目标,这是值得赞赏的。从种种迹象来看,MSM的复苏之路已经正式开启了!!

?2021尽管原糖价格已飙升至US$0.17/Ibs,但MSM已将原糖锁定在US$0.13/Ibs至US$0.14Ibs足够供应给国内零售市场2021年的需求的85%。因此预计MSM在来临的季度的利润率(margin)会至少持平或在更高的水品。

?除此之外,本年度迄今MSM已锁定了其2021上半年出口目标销售额的65%而该交易都有很好的价格溢价。MSM也提高了2021年的工业市场的糖售价每吨50至150令吉。由于天然气价格依然在低位所以预计提炼成本依然会跟随在低位。

?管理层也很乐观的认为随着疫苗接种计划的实施,国内食糖率将逐步提高。而该集团正努力在2021财年进行产能和资产优化。我相信就算售价不提升只要新管理层能控制好成本,公司依然能赚钱!

?估值而言,现在市值只是7亿令吉。如果该公司可以在未来一年赚个两亿,那这公司实属低估!以上市时候的PE 10而计算,该集团的上升空间还算蛮大。不过就算计入以人们对官联公司的不好的印象而对估值打折一半,股价依然有很几级的上升空间。

?以下是MSM上市以来的历任CEO:
2011上市→31 Dec 2013 Chua Say Sin
1 Jan 2014→11 July 2016 YBhg Dato' Sheikh Awab Sheikh Abod
12 July 2016→21 Jan 2018 Mohamad Amri Sahari
22 Jan 2018→22 Apr 2019 Mohamad Shafie
22 Apr 2019→8 Oct 2020 Khairil Anuar Aziz
1 Feb 2021→Now Syed Feizal Syed Mohammad

自从 Amri 那任CEO上任后公司的辉煌时期已不再。接着2020年10月Khairil Anuar因为RM36.6million 的库存注销丑闻而被炒鱿鱼了所以Feizal 就接马暂代CEO接着就成为正式CEO。Feizal 上任后业绩不只转亏为盈而也大力提升仿佛要回到当年的辉煌时期。希望Feizal会越做越好不要让股东门失望。

?个人感言:我投的不只是因为公司转亏为盈而是因为新的管理层让公司转亏为盈。我在这里面看到了一线生机。因为一门生意最重要的一环就是领导的能力。从古至今糖的需求量都是稳定上涨因为人人每天都需要它。投资就是有理有据→大胆假设→依法播种→等待成果。
Show more
Ah Tan
Tp 1 NTA 2.25
3 Like · 3 years · translate
BuyWhatWinWhat买啥赚啥
still can go in ??
Like · 3 years · translate
Ah Tan
My Average price RM1.37 will hold until nxt quarter
2 Like · 3 years · translate
Ah Tan
Msm will cross supermx price soon
2 Like · 3 years · translate
Ah Tan
H9e limit up
1 Like · 3 years · translate
soon kok jang
,hoot9e.......
Like · 3 years · translate
Lipcher Ng
soo hin tan r u sure?
Like · 3 years · translate
Lipcher Ng
你讲cross supermx 我很伤心咯。如果你讲cross nestle 我就很开心
Like · 3 years · translate
BuyWhatWinWhat买啥赚啥
boss wanna join u.... any contact??
Like · 3 years · translate
Roy Raymond
wuchang is here..mari mari hoot9e..haha..all in all in
1 Like · 3 years · translate
BJ Tiew
quite agree with ur TP1, but will take time, plus 3 more Q to prove its value.
1 Like · 3 years · translate
jin yip kok
well said BJ
Like · 3 years · translate
Warren B
hoot ah...........
Like · 3 years · translate
Warren B
when wu chang buy selling pressure arise....omg
1 Like · 3 years · translate
Kelvin Lean
0.6 til now. still waiting another half.
Like · 3 years · translate
BJ Tiew
sorry yea, newbie here. who is wuchang?
Like · 3 years · translate
Peter Chong
hoot ah。。。。。
Like · 3 years · translate
Lim Chun Eik
9e.

.
........
Like · 3 years · translate
Kian Loong Loh
MSM’s share price climb puts Felda’s offer price for FGV in spotlight
TheEdge Tue, Mar 02, 2021 03:16pm - 24 minutes ago


KUALA LUMPUR (March 2): MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd’s share price continues to be on an upward trend after the sugar refiner announced its quarterly financial results that showed a net profit of RM56.24 million in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2020 (4QFY20).

As at the lunch break, MSM closed at RM1.34, up six sen or 4.7%, with 59.3 million shares traded. The stock hit an intra-day high of RM1.49.

At this share price, the country’s largest sugar refiner is currently valued at RM977.14 million.

The stock is currently trading at more than a year’s high, after its share price more than doubled from 56 sen last week following the posting of its financial results on Thursday.

MSM’s share price has exceeded a few analysts’ target prices at below RM1.30. The highest target price is at RM1.96 pegged by MIDF Amanah Investment Bank. The average target price of four analysts is RM1.41.

Interestingly, MSM’s share price is trading at a price higher than its parent company FGV Holdings Bhd, whose share price is currently trading at RM1.31.

The strong rebound on MSM has also cast the spotlight on the valuation of FGV shares considering that the plantation giant is in the midst of being taken private by its controlling shareholder Federal Land Development Authority (Felda).

With MSM’s share price having more than doubled recently, this means that FGV’s 51% controlling stake in the sugar company is now worth a lot more compared with the day when Felda launched its takeover offer in early December last year.

A back of the envelope calculation shows that FGV’s 51% stake in MSM is currently worth RM480.4 million at the closing price at noon break today, translating into 16.9 sen per share compared with barely 3.7 sen as at end-2020.

To recap, Felda made a mandatory takeover offer to FGV on Dec 8 last year, offering to acquire all remaining shares in the plantation group (excluding treasury shares) at RM1.30 per share.

The offer has been extended more than once. It will be closed on March 15 from the original deadline of Feb 2. As at Feb 25, Felda has raised its equity interest in FGV to 2.78 billion shares or a 76.32% stake.

MSM posted net profit of RM56.24 million for 4QFY20, compared to net loss of RM40.28 million a year ago, due to higher overall margin and lower finance cost.

For the financial year ended Dec 31, 2020 (FY20), its net loss narrowed to RM71.23 million from RM299.77 million a year earlier.

On its prospects, MSM said the outlook for FY21 remains challenging with economic disruption in the country from travel and movement restriction orders due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, with the implementation of the vaccination program, MSM said it anticipates national sugar consumption to gradually improve.
Show more
Like · 3 years · translate
Lipcher Ng
knn有你在股价肯定跌到够够力。有冲花水吗?
2 Like · 3 years · translate
Warren B
hahahahah....
1 Like · 3 years · translate
Lipcher Ng
Diam diam la siapa tak tau share ni naik? Orang buta pun tau la
Like · 3 years · translate
Ah Tan
恭喜恭喜持有的朋友!!
Like · 3 years · translate
Warren B
gogogo......
Like · 3 years · translate
Warren B
hoot 9e........
Like · 3 years · translate
Warren B
tp 2.25....
Like · 3 years · translate
Kian Loong Loh
Now is the time to collect.
1 Like · 3 years · translate
Warren B
yes collection time
Like · 3 years · translate
Ah Tan
1.40 再进1m lot 这个春天股,short term TP RM3
1 Like · 3 years · translate
Warren B
秋天出票。。。。。。。。
Like · 3 years · translate
tan nelson
Qr is oct - Dec 2020 which is profitable before arrival of new ceo.
Like · 3 years · translate
Warren B
Do you know who is hoo alvin? U rape him before? Y he keep kutuk you? Lol
Like · 3 years · translate
Hoo Alvin
Haha.. Really sot zor.. Go to read the message as long you deleted the whole chat.. Real man.. Haha.. Man won't twist word..
Like · 3 years · translate
Warren B
Enough la, u joined bursa since 2018 how much profit u have made? A loser like you want to give advice to ppl here... Lol
Like · 3 years · translate