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the worst i expect Crude oil can drop is to 50 dollar barrel, which is 30% downside risk from current crude oil price. so i expect the worst hibi can drop is to around 1.5.
That's only a simple maths calculation!! Crude oil drops to 50 USD, most O&G companies will make a huge loss runs into Tens or Hundreds of millions. Hibi may sink into penny stock!! A 30% downside risk does not applicable in this scenario!
During covid, when oil was usd20 or negative, hibiscus and other oil companies was also selling at cost or above cost. Physical and paper market is 2 different things. The longer oil price stay low, the better for lost cost producers. Simple logic